Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:01:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x4568…97b9 world 78 markets active 2h ago coverage 524d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate36%28W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% +$3
other 24% −$7
politics 18% +$1
sports 13% $0
economics 3% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)+8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.1% -9.4% 12% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 29 +62.2% +46.8% 28% 3% -8.8%
≤90d 72 +24.7% +12.9% 36% 1% -9.4%
all 78 +20.3% +8.8% 36% 1% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.8% 1% -9.6%
10% -1.6% 1% -18.3%
15% -11.1% 1% -26.2%
20% -19.8% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +46% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

524d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses28 / 50
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)78 / 78
History coverage524d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 78 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $45 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $45 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $78 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $7 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 16 $154 −$2 -2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $20 $0 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $3 $0 +3%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $3 $0 -5%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $51 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $46 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $43 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $5 −$1 -9%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $1 $0 -7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 08 $10 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $93 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $150 +$1 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $175 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 03 $41 +$1 +3%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 31 $41 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 29 $75 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $86 +$8 +10%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 27 $22 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 26 $39 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 25 $38 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $84 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $19 +$3 +18%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 23 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $39 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $44 −$5 -12%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 19 $17 −$1 -8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 18 $41 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 17 $6 $0 -6%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $37 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $46 −$1 -2%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $15 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $42 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $139 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $2 $0 +10%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $46 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $43 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $141 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 21 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $81 $0 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $39 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 20 $42 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 19 $42 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $45 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $45 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $7 46h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $38 46h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $45 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $33 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $3 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $9 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $1 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $45 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $6 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $6 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 31¢ $7 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $7 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $1 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $7 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $16 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $20 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $4 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $8 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 39¢ $19 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 39¢ $2 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $22 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $3 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $2 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 345 history records