Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:49:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
45 0x4564…50b6 crypto 135 markets active 1h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
Total PnL +$16 (+5%) realized +$11 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate55%64W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$26
7 days+$10
14 days+$9
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% +$11
other 15% −$8
world 5% +$2
sports 4% −$1
weather 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 96 +6.2% -3.9% 54% 52% -5.8%
≤30d 113 +9.8% -0.7% 56% 54% -4.3%
≤90d 117 +7.9% -2.4% 55% 53% -5.0%
all 117 +7.9% -2.4% 55% 53% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.4% 53% -5.0%
10% -11.8% 50% -14.1%
15% -20.3% 43% -22.4%
20% -28.1% 38% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$11
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses64 / 53
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions18
Markets (closed)117 / 135
History coverage37d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 117 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 53¢ 50¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-5%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Derrick Lewis 21¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Yes 30¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Yes 23¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-97%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 42¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Down 66¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +73%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 +$1 +132%
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +74%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +40%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $1 $0 -4%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$4 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$3 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$3 +80%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 +39%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: CCG Esports vs Winthrop University (BO3) - North American Challen Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 +$6 +189%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +14%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$3 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$3 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +9%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 09 $2 +$2 +80%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $1 45m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $2 51m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 56m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $2 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $1 1h
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? SELL Yes 99¢ $2 1h
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 4h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $3 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $3 4h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $3 4h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $2 4h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 19h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 19h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL No 27¢ $1 19h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $8 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $4 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $4 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $4 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.61 · official $30.61 (match) · 266 history records