Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:10:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
45 0x4563…5f7c sports 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$116 (+37%) realized +$116 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +38% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +25% what you keep after slip
Net edge+25%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%12W / 8L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days+$91
14 days+$112
30 days+$112
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$111
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+24.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +38.7% +25.5% 54% 54% +24.8%
≤30d 20 +37.9% +24.8% 60% 60% +25.9%
≤90d 20 +37.9% +24.8% 60% 60% +25.9%
all 20 +37.9% +24.8% 60% 60% +25.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +24.8% 60% +25.9%
10% +12.9% 60% +13.8%
15% +2.0% 55% +2.8%
20% -8.0% 50% -7.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +39% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +38% · $-wt +39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +55% → late +21% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$13 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.11 per $1 lost it wins $2.11
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized+$116
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses12 / 8
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)20 / 21
History coverage10d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Shuai Zhang vs Gabriela Ruse Shuai Zhang 37¢ 36¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala Jun 19 $28 +$57 +206%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 18 $25 −$25 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $20 +$22 +109%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $10 +$18 +172%
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 15 $17 −$10 -57%
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $17 +$36 +205%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 15 $20 −$5 -24%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Barbora Krejcikova Jun 14 $20 +$14 +69%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Coco Gauff Jun 14 $26 +$29 +112%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $5 +$6 +109%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $5 +$8 +152%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $10 +$3 +30%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 11 $5 +$6 +109%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $10 +$13 +124%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik Jun 10 $5 +$2 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Shuai Zhang vs Gabriela Ruse BUY Shuai Zhang 37¢ $25 1h
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 32¢ $28 20h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Arthur Fery 39¢ $25 33h
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic BUY Marin Cilic 42¢ $20 3d
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa BUY Suzan Lamens 50¢ $20 4d
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Adrian Mannarino 36¢ $10 4d
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Aleksandar Kovacevic 38¢ $10 4d
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz SELL Zizou Bergs 25¢ $15 4d
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Nikola Bartunkova 32¢ $17 5d
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 47¢ $20 5d
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Emma Raducanu 16¢ $7 5d
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu SELL Emma Raducanu 17¢ $8 5d
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Emma Raducanu 22¢ $10 5d
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Zizou Bergs 31¢ $20 5d
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Barbora Krejcikova BUY Robin Montgomery 29¢ $20 5d
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Coco Gauff BUY Nikola Bartunkova 23¢ $26 6d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Ben Shelton 47¢ $5 7d
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 39¢ $5 7d
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria BUY Tatjana Maria 18¢ $5 8d
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 61¢ $13 8d
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 34¢ $5 8d
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech SELL Adrian Mannarino 100¢ $11 8d
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech BUY Adrian Mannarino 47¢ $5 8d
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios BUY Sho Shimabukuro 44¢ $10 9d
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Rinky Hijikata 31¢ $5 9d
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik SELL Alexander Bublik 100¢ $7 9d
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 70¢ $5 10d
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik BUY Alexander Bublik 70¢ $5 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.66 · official $24.66 (match) · 43 history records