Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:07:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x455e…d618 crypto 1135 markets active 1h ago coverage 62d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 62d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,727 (-14%) realized −$1,727 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate38%425W / 681L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day49.6pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$467
7 days−$522
14 days−$496
30 days−$613
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$1,660
other 1% −$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-25.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 204 -16.9% -24.8% 38% 20% -19.7%
≤30d 575 -3.9% -13.1% 58% 35% -16.8%
≤90d 1106 -17.3% -25.2% 38% 26% -22.5%
all 1106 -17.3% -25.2% 38% 26% -22.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.2% 26% -22.5%
10% ← realistic here -32.3% 23% -29.9%
15% -38.9% 22% -36.7%
20% -44.9% 19% -42.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -31% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,727
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses425 / 681
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1106 / 1135
History coverage62d ⚠
Avg bet$11
Trades / day49.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1106 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $58 −$13 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $67 −$8 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $55 −$17 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$6 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $41 −$29 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $47 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $56 −$24 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $62 −$25 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $45 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $54 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $67 −$8 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $72 −$19 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $62 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $83 −$21 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $83 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $41 −$24 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $52 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $62 −$28 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $73 +$6 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $72 −$21 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $52 −$36 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $63 −$29 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $41 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $41 +$9 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $62 −$30 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$15 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$16 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $82 −$12 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $41 −$24 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $82 −$16 -19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $6 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records