Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:39:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x455e…1b6c sports 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 39d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$9 (-5%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate31%4W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days+$9
14 days+$9
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% +$28
sports 19% +$1
crypto 16% −$19
weather 11% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-31.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -3.5% -12.7% 33% 33% -4.7%
≤30d 9 -3.5% -12.7% 33% 33% -4.7%
≤90d 13 -24.5% -31.7% 31% 23% -15.3%
all 13 -24.5% -31.7% 31% 23% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.7% 23% -15.3%
10% -38.2% 23% -23.4%
15% -44.2% 23% -30.8%
20% -49.7% 23% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 82% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -38% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$10 · ×1.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses4 / 9
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage39d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 7? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 48¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 82¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 57¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on May 8? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$13 +262%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $41 +$23 +55%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $19 −$19 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $20 −$1 -7%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $28 +$44 +158%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? May 13 $11 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 7? May 07 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 7? May 07 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on May 8? May 07 $21 −$20 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 21h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 21h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 21h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 21h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $64 21h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $19 33h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) SELL Brazil 31¢ $19 33h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $41 45h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 32¢ $20 45h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $72 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $28 2d
Will Solana reach $100 in May? SELL No 32¢ $11 32d
Will Solana reach $100 in May? BUY No 27¢ $5 33d
Will Solana reach $100 in May? BUY No 26¢ $5 33d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 7? SELL No 0¢ $0 38d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 7? BUY No 3¢ $1 38d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 7? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 38d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on May 8? BUY Yes 40¢ $21 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 20 history records