Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:54:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x455d…6011 other 169 markets active 2h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$192 (-6%) realized −$183 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate48%80W / 87L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$83
7 days−$205
14 days−$165
30 days−$442
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% +$75
sports 26% −$99
crypto 8% −$212
world 1% −$11
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -38.3% -44.2% 38% 31% -38.9%
≤30d 84 -7.3% -16.1% 51% 45% -28.8%
≤90d 167 +4.1% -5.9% 48% 44% -16.7%
all 167 +4.1% -5.9% 48% 44% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.9% 44% -16.7%
10% -14.9% 41% -24.7%
15% -23.1% 35% -31.9%
20% -30.6% 28% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$14 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized−$183
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses80 / 87
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions2
Markets (closed)167 / 169
History coverage76d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 167 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 92¢ 96¢ $36 $37 +$1 (+4%)
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 Over 67¢ 48¢ $36 $25 −$10 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $33 +$2 +8%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $52 −$40 -76%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $48 +$4 +9%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $36 −$29 -82%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $28 +$8 +28%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $23 +$5 +20%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $21 −$19 -87%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $29 +$3 +11%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$12 +63%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $53 −$44 -82%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$13 +64%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 +$20 +39%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 +$4 +95%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $9 +$10 +108%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $21 +$9 +41%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$11 +214%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 −$4 -44%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $52 +$18 +34%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 14 $10 $0 -2%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$12 +593%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $9 +$8 +92%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $31 +$3 +10%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $24 +$7 +30%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $20 +$3 +16%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $16 +$4 +28%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-0 be the exact series outcome? Jun 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $17 +$4 +25%
Will Slovenia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $16 +$2 +10%
Will Liechtenstein win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $15 +$1 +7%
Will Luxembourg win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $10 +$5 +49%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $7 +$3 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $36 2h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 96¢ $36 3h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 88¢ $33 4h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $36 12h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $13 27h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 20¢ $13 27h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 80¢ $52 28h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $52 28h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 90¢ $48 28h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 34h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $6 47h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 13¢ $6 47h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $36 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $36 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 77¢ $28 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $28 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 2.5 BUY Over 82¢ $23 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 6¢ $3 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $21 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $29 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $32 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 3d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 10¢ $10 3d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $53 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 54¢ $6 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 26¢ $6 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $21 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $31 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 91¢ $33 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.60 · official $62.60 (match) · 351 history records