Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:59:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x455d…a8a3 crypto 865 markets active 0h ago coverage 79d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 79d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,131 (-22%) realized −$4,131 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate49%538W / 563L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day33.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,524
7 days−$1,557
14 days−$1,722
30 days−$1,722
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,542
sports 0% +$1
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 354 -33.1% -39.4% 24% 24% -80.1%
≤30d 382 -33.7% -40.0% 25% 25% -74.4%
≤90d 1101 -15.0% -23.1% 49% 32% -23.2%
all 1101 -15.0% -23.1% 49% 32% -23.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.1% 32% -23.2%
10% ← realistic here -30.5% 24% -30.5%
15% -37.2% 20% -37.3%
20% -43.3% 17% -43.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$13 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$4,131
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses538 / 563
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1101 / 865
History coverage79d ⚠
Avg bet$22
Trades / day33.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Down 62¢ 56¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 495 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 13, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$3 -62%
Solana Up or Down - March 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$15 -200%
Solana Up or Down - February 25, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $0 −$1 -283%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 25, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -137%
XRP Up or Down - February 24, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$3 -77%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 25, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $0 −$2 -325%
Solana Up or Down - March 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 12, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $14 −$13 -93%
XRP Up or Down - March 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$7 -86%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 22, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -406%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$13 -602%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$5 -624%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 25, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +60%
Solana Up or Down - March 10, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $0 −$2 -475%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 13, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$7 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $0 −$1 -253%
Solana Up or Down - March 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 8, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$6 -121%
Solana Up or Down - February 25, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$7 -230%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 13, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$11 -93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 3m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 8m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 43m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 43m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.82 · official $3.67 (match) · 3500 history records