Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:05:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x455c…e548 weather 225 markets active 1h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,285 (-11%) realized −$950 · open −$335
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate75%159W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$594now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$54
7 days+$63
14 days−$462
30 days−$531
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 64% −$798
other 26% −$548
sports 9% +$77
tech 1% −$115
world 0% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +3.9% -6.0% 83% 40% -6.3%
≤30d 168 -1.0% -10.4% 77% 36% -15.0%
≤90d 212 -2.1% -11.4% 75% 39% -18.3%
all 212 -2.1% -11.4% 75% 39% -18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 39% -18.3%
10% -19.9% 9% -26.1%
15% -27.6% 3% -33.3%
20% -34.7% 2% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$36 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$594
Realized−$950
Unrealized−$335
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses159 / 53
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions13
Markets (closed)212 / 225
History coverage86d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 212 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027? Yes 26¢ 9¢ $361 $123 −$238 (-66%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 15? No 91¢ 97¢ $99 $106 +$7 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 65°F or below on June 14? No 83¢ 100¢ $58 $70 +$12 (+21%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 14? No 86¢ 100¢ $50 $58 +$8 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 15? No 85¢ 88¢ $46 $48 +$2 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 15? No 82¢ 76¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on June 15? No 89¢ 96¢ $37 $40 +$3 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 15? No 81¢ 100¢ $25 $30 +$6 (+23%)
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+1%)
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 3¢ 0¢ $149 $22 −$127 (-85%)
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Boston Red Sox 50¢ 54¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
SBF released from custody in 2026? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $15 $10 −$5 (-36%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on June 14? No 86¢ 100¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $9 +$2 +19%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $72 +$1 +2%
Will White House post 140-159 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $117 +$14 +12%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 14 $50 +$6 +12%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 14 $55 +$5 +8%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 14 $37 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 13? Jun 14 $67 +$17 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 14 $50 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 14 $10 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 13 $50 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 13 $4 +$1 +12%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $72 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 13 $55 −$55 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 9? Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 12 $50 +$5 +10%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 12 $100 +$12 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 12 $27 +$6 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 11? Jun 12 $49 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 12 $17 +$3 +17%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $10 +$2 +19%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 42°C on June 11? Jun 11 $39 +$6 +16%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 11 $7 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 11 $39 +$3 +8%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 11 $49 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 11 $8 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 10 $28 −$2 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 9? Jun 10 $13 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 9? Jun 10 $49 +$5 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 9? Jun 10 $50 +$7 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 10 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 9? Jun 09 $9 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on June 9? Jun 09 $48 −$4 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $25 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 8? Jun 09 $100 +$17 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 8? Jun 09 $39 +$8 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 8? Jun 09 $69 +$7 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 8? Jun 09 $50 +$13 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on June 8? Jun 09 $49 +$5 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 7? Jun 08 $87 +$12 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 7? Jun 08 $9 +$1 +11%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 08 $24 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on May 23? Jun 07 $157 −$40 -25%
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will "Dude" be said 20+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience of Jun 07 $16 −$16 -100%
Will "Instagram" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the Jun 07 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 27? Jun 07 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on May 17? Jun 07 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on May 24? Jun 07 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 4¢ $0 49m
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 4¢ $0 49m
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 4¢ $0 49m
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 4¢ $0 49m
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 4¢ $0 50m
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 4¢ $0 50m
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $0 50m
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 6¢ $0 51m
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 6¢ $0 51m
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 6¢ $0 51m
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $0 51m
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $0 52m
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $0 52m
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $0 52m
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $0 52m
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $0 53m
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $0 53m
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $0 53m
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $0 53m
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $0 54m
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $0 54m
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $0 54m
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $0 54m
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $0 55m
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $0 55m
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $0 55m
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $0 55m
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $0 56m
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $0 56m
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $0 56m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $593.86 · official $593.58 (match) · 1081 history records