Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T16:57:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
45 0x455a…dc83 other 131 markets active 2h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$751 (+20%) realized +$745 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%34W / 59L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$844now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days+$88
14 days+$76
30 days+$529
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% +$419
sports 19% +$281
crypto 2% +$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -19.8% -27.4% 22% 22% +1.4%
≤30d 91 +5.1% -4.9% 35% 35% +11.8%
≤90d 91 +5.1% -4.9% 35% 35% +11.8%
all 93 +5.8% -4.3% 37% 37% +15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.3% 37% +15.6%
10% -13.5% 32% +4.5%
15% -21.8% 30% -5.6%
20% -29.5% 23% -14.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$12 · ×3.49 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.01 per $1 lost it wins $2.01
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$844
Realized+$745
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses34 / 59
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions19
Markets (closed)93 / 131
History coverage124d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 23¢ $150 $214 +$64 (+43%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 19¢ $50 $120 +$70 (+140%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 12¢ $150 $106 −$44 (-29%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $100 $76 −$24 (-24%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 48¢ $100 $76 −$24 (-24%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+5%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $50 $38 −$12 (-24%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $50 $34 −$16 (-33%)
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-17%)
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-21%)
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 7¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-70%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-40%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+9%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-28%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $101 +$24 +24%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $51 +$25 +50%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $51 +$40 +79%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $5 +$13 +250%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $50 +$19 +38%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 24 $6 −$6 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $5 +$24 +474%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 +$26 +510%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $202 +$76 +38%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$95 +928%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$6 +62%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $10 +$19 +188%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $25 +$10 +38%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $36 +$10 +29%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals AND Harry Kane: 2+ goals AND Lamine Yamal: BUY 2¢ $2 24h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 28h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 28h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 2d
Brazil leading at halftime? AND Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Draw at BUY 9¢ $3 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 3d
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 3d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 3d
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 3d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 3d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 3d
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? AND Exact Score: Colombia 1 - BUY 3¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 4d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 4d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 4d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 4d
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $843.86 · official $843.87 (match) · 268 history records