Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:35:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x4557…bf49 sports 518 markets active 1h ago coverage 241d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$136 (+1%) realized +$160 · open −$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate46%230W / 266L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$131now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days−$27
14 days−$27
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% +$6
other 36% +$8
politics 3% −$15
world 1% +$49
finance 1% −$19
economics 1% +$2
tech 1% +$25
culture 0% −$25
crypto 0% −$1
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -23.6% -30.9% 46% 38% -17.0%
≤30d 27 -26.4% -33.4% 44% 37% -18.0%
≤90d 27 -26.4% -33.4% 44% 37% -18.0%
all 496 +13.3% +2.5% 46% 37% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.5% 37% -6.2%
10% -7.3% 30% -15.2%
15% -16.3% 23% -23.4%
20% -24.5% 18% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +31% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$6 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

241d coverage
Net worth$131
Realized+$160
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses230 / 266
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions22
Markets (closed)496 / 518
History coverage241d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 496 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 19¢ $20 $19 −$0 (-2%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 83¢ 84¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $15 $15 −$1 (-4%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-0%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+0%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 66¢ 68¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+2%)
New COVID variant of concern before 2027? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+5%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-27%)
Will Trump launch a coin by December 31? Yes 26¢ 28¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Yes 18¢ 21¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-56%)
Will Venezuela become 51st state? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Yes 24¢ 8¢ $2 $1 −$2 (-65%)
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-77%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes 21¢ 6¢ $2 $1 −$2 (-73%)
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026? Yes 60¢ 11¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-82%)
Nasdaq round-the-clock trading by June 30? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 155 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $11 +$4 +40%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $12 −$1 -6%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $30 +$3 +10%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -78%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $43 +$7 +15%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $26 +$4 +16%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$11 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$3 +29%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$6 +57%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $6 −$2 -25%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $12 +$5 +40%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $4 +$6 +140%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 +$5 +34%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 $0 +9%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $41 +$11 +26%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 −$2 -75%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $3 −$1 -52%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 26 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Bologna FC 1909 vs. SK Brann end in a draw? Mar 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MEXC be accused of insider trading? Mar 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Blues vs. Predators Mar 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Yelp (YELP) beat quarterly earnings? Mar 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Wizards vs. Magic Mar 25 $2 −$1 -62%
UTSA Roadrunners vs. UAB Blazers (W) Mar 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Perth Glory FC win on 2025-12-13? Mar 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-25? Mar 25 $35 −$11 -32%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-03-28? Mar 24 $0 $0 -100%
Kraken vs. Blue Jackets Mar 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs ENCE Academy (BO3) - European Pro Leag Mar 04 $4 +$1 +39%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode Mar 04 $4 +$1 +25%
Counter-Strike: HEROIC Academy vs QUAZAR (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qua Mar 04 $3 +$2 +59%
Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves Mar 04 $180 −$12 -7%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers Mar 04 $66 −$5 -8%
George Mason Patriots vs. VCU Rams Mar 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Army Black Knights vs. Bucknell Bison Mar 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bryant Bulldogs vs. New Hampshire Wildcats Mar 04 $16 +$7 +44%
Counter-Strike: Fake do Biru vs Isurus (BO3) - CCT South America Serie Mar 04 $34 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: WHITEBIRD vs Younglings (BO3) - IZI WEX Group A Mar 03 $6 −$3 -47%
Counter-Strike: NIP vs NRG (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Mar 03 $918 −$72 -8%
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs premghouls (BO3) - IZI WEX Group B Mar 03 $9 −$1 -15%
Counter-Strike: Bounty Hunters Esports vs Crashers (BO3) - CCT South A Mar 03 $87 +$8 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 75¢ $11 59m
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 71¢ $11 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 98¢ $33 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 89¢ $30 1h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 79¢ $12 1h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $50 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $30 2h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 2h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 5h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 5h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $8 5h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $13 5h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 5h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $16 5h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 86¢ $26 9h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 9h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $13 9h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 9h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $7 9h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 9h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $13 9h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $4 9h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 9h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $43 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $131.22 · official $131.42 (match) · 1657 history records