Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T13:06:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

45
0x4557…7d15
sports · 22 markets active 2h ago
3.5score
+$56 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$56 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
Net worth$16
Realized+$56
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses15 / 6
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)21 / 22
History coverage87d
Avg bet$470
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%
Chart Positions 1 History 21 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$3
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Japan 91¢ 92¢ $15 $16 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
CR Vasco da Gama vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 4.5 Jun 03 $16 +$2 +11%
Exact Score: FK Shakhtar Donetsk 3 - 0 FK Kolos Kovalivka? Jun 03 $16 +$2 +10%
Will Vladimir Putin be the next leader out before 2027? May 21 $1,048 −$3 -0%
Girona FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 5.5 May 21 $14 +$1 +6%
CS Cristal vs. CDP Junior FC: O/U 4.5 May 21 $17 +$1 +7%
Spread: Associação Chapecoense de Futebol (-1.5) Mar 21 $19 +$2 +10%
Dalian Yingbo FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC: O/U 3.5 Mar 21 $138 +$109 +79%
Will Elon Musk post 1320-1359 tweets in March 2026? Mar 20 $277 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Mar 20 $1,066 +$2 +0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Mar 20 $2,160 +$4 +0%
Will Hassan Khomeini be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Mar 20 $1,101 +$1 +0%
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 28 or 29 governorships after th Mar 20 $34 $0 +0%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the e Mar 20 $123 −$4 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in March 2026? Mar 20 $968 +$2 +0%
Will Casey Putsch win the 2026 Ohio Governor Republican primary electi Mar 20 $47 −$2 -5%
Will Waldo Albarracín win the 2026 La Paz mayoral election? Mar 20 $1,023 +$17 +2%
Will Kim Farington be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? Mar 20 $952 +$2 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Mar 20 $944 +$4 +0%
LoL: Gen.G vs LYON - Game 1 Winner Mar 20 $24 +$2 +6%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $305 on March 19? Mar 20 $147 +$116 +79%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Mar 20 $200 −$200 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 30% +$19
other 24% −$4
culture 21% +$4
world 11% +$1
tech 11% +$120
sports 4% −$84
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Japan 91¢ $16 1h
CR Vasco da Gama vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 90¢ $16 14d
Exact Score: FK Shakhtar Donetsk 3 - 0 FK Kolos Kovalivka? BUY No 91¢ $16 24d
Girona FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 94¢ $14 31d
CS Cristal vs. CDP Junior FC: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 93¢ $17 47d
Will Vladimir Putin be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $1,044 85d
Will Vladimir Putin be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 97¢ $550 85d
Will Vladimir Putin be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 97¢ $499 85d
Will Elon Musk post 1320-1359 tweets in March 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $99 85d
Will Elon Musk post 1320-1359 tweets in March 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $95 85d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $1,068 85d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $6 85d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $881 85d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $179 85d
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL Yes $35 85d
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY Yes $35 85d
Will Hassan Khomeini be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 95¢ $753 85d
Will Hassan Khomeini be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 95¢ $312 85d
Will Hassan Khomeini be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 95¢ $1,062 85d
Will Elon Musk post 1320-1359 tweets in March 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $119 85d
Will Elon Musk post 1320-1359 tweets in March 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $58 85d
Will Elon Musk post 1320-1359 tweets in March 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $183 85d
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL No 95¢ $1,067 85d
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 95¢ $1,062 85d
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 28 or 29 governorships after th SELL Yes $34 85d
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 28 or 29 governorships after th BUY Yes $34 85d
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL No 95¢ $1,063 85d
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 95¢ $1,063 85d
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the e SELL Yes $17 85d
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the e SELL Yes $72 85d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 5 +6.7% -3.5% 80% 20% -9.3%
≤90d 21 +4.8% -5.2% 71% 14% -9.0%
all 21 +4.8% -5.2% 71% 14% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.2% 14% -9.0%
10% -14.2% 10% -17.7%
15% -22.5% 10% -25.7%
20% -30.1% 10% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.55 · official $15.55 (match) · 63 history records