Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:28:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x4555…bbcd crypto 1214 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 100d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$158 (-1%) realized −$158 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate57%689W / 525L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day23.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$60
7 days−$371
14 days+$436
30 days+$330
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$361
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 85 -30.3% -37.0% 36% 36% -40.8%
≤30d 514 -1.6% -11.0% 48% 46% -6.3%
≤90d 1118 -5.5% -14.5% 54% 39% -12.1%
all 1214 -4.4% -13.5% 57% 38% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.5% 38% -11.8%
10% ← realistic here -21.8% 35% -20.2%
15% -29.3% 33% -27.9%
20% -36.3% 31% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$9 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$158
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses689 / 525
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1214 / 1214
History coverage100d ⚠
Avg bet$12
Trades / day23.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1214 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $28 +$20 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$19 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$6 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$13 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$7 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 12 $28 +$19 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $48 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $28 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $4 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records