Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T17:19:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

45
0x4554…8dee
sports · 16 markets active 1h ago
3.5score
+$321 +12%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$44 · open +$365
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
Net worth$605
Realized−$44
Unrealized+$365
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses8 / 7
Est. fees paid−$45
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage30d
Avg bet$173
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 15 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$109
7 days−$109
14 days+$157
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Qualifier Playoffs Vivo Keyd Stars 24¢ 60¢ $240 $605 +$365 (+152%)
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs ThunderTalk Gaming 51¢ $311 $0 −$311 (-100%)
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs CGN Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Group A Beşiktaş Esports 44¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner KT Rolster 59¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Team WE 19¢ $43 $0 −$43 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage SPARTA 50¢ $150 $0 −$150 (-100%)
LoL: Ronaldo Team vs Bubliki (BO5) - LPLOL Playoffs Ronaldo Team 29¢ $131 $0 −$131 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: XI Esport vs MASQ (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group B Jun 12 $34 +$63 +188%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) Jun 12 $16 −$2 -10%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $44 −$43 -98%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $163 +$8 +5%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St Jun 12 $152 −$150 -98%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $203 +$14 +7%
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports (BO5) - North American Challen Jun 05 $208 +$227 +109%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs ASTRAL (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 04 $101 +$77 +76%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $316 −$311 -99%
Counter-Strike: Young Ninjas vs Phantom (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series P Jun 02 $203 +$273 +134%
LoL: Ronaldo Team vs Bubliki (BO5) - LPLOL Playoffs May 29 $133 −$131 -98%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 20 $303 +$180 +60%
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs CGN Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Group A May 20 $203 −$200 -98%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner May 20 $304 −$300 -99%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) May 15 $144 +$249 +172%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 100% +$321
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & BUY Vivo Keyd Stars 24¢ $82 1h
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & BUY Vivo Keyd Stars 24¢ $83 1h
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & BUY Vivo Keyd Stars 24¢ $81 1h
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) SELL Team WE 18¢ $15 25h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Team WE 19¢ $16 25h
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) BUY Team WE 19¢ $16 25h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Team WE 19¢ $14 25h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Team WE 19¢ $14 25h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St BUY SPARTA 50¢ $152 28h
Counter-Strike: XI Esport vs MASQ (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group B BUY MASQ 34¢ $34 30h
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 47¢ $61 36h
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 47¢ $102 36h
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 46¢ $203 36h
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports (BO5) - North American Challen SELL CCG Esports 100¢ $436 8d
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports (BO5) - North American Challen BUY CCG Esports 47¢ $36 9d
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports (BO5) - North American Challen BUY CCG Esports 47¢ $71 9d
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports (BO5) - North American Challen BUY CCG Esports 47¢ $102 9d
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs ASTRAL (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Betclic Apogee Esports 56¢ $101 9d
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY ThunderTalk Gaming 51¢ $316 11d
LoL: Ronaldo Team vs Bubliki (BO5) - LPLOL Playoffs BUY Ronaldo Team 30¢ $35 14d
LoL: Ronaldo Team vs Bubliki (BO5) - LPLOL Playoffs BUY Ronaldo Team 29¢ $99 14d
Counter-Strike: Young Ninjas vs Phantom (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series P BUY Young Ninjas 42¢ $203 15d
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs CGN Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Group A BUY Beşiktaş Esports 44¢ $203 24d
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY KT Rolster 62¢ $303 24d
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster 59¢ $304 24d
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Spirit 36¢ $42 30d
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Spirit 36¢ $102 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-1.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -1.6% -11.0% 50% 17% -25.8%
≤30d 15 +9.5% -1.0% 53% 40% -11.1%
≤90d 15 +9.5% -1.0% 53% 40% -11.1%
all 15 +9.5% -1.0% 53% 40% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.0% 40% -11.1%
10% -10.4% 40% -19.6%
15% -19.1% 40% -27.4%
20% -27.0% 40% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $605.00 · official $605.00 (match) · 34 history records