Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:47:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x4552…5eb2 sports 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$322 (-10%) realized −$324 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate51%21W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$126now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$73
14 days+$73
30 days−$299
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$338
other 20% −$49
weather 0% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +39.5% +26.2% 50% 50% -0.7%
≤30d 26 -0.5% -10.0% 50% 50% -19.5%
≤90d 41 -9.0% -17.6% 51% 49% -21.6%
all 41 -9.0% -17.6% 51% 49% -21.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.6% 49% -21.6%
10% -25.5% 46% -29.1%
15% -32.7% 32% -36.0%
20% -39.3% 20% -42.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$53 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$126
Realized−$324
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses21 / 20
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage59d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 75¢ 76¢ $124 $126 +$2 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $200 −$74 -37%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $117 +$83 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $178 −$60 -34%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $74 +$104 +140%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $121 −$51 -42%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $51 +$71 +140%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea May 26 $49 $0 -0%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs May 26 $37 +$13 +34%
Valorant: QoR vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stag May 25 $27 +$10 +36%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 25 $20 +$7 +34%
Valorant: Joblife vs UCAM Esports Club (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Playoffs May 25 $60 −$40 -66%
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs Nongshim Red Force (+1.5) May 25 $37 +$23 +62%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA (+1.5) May 25 $65 −$28 -43%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $50 +$13 +26%
Counter-Strike: Galorys vs largadosypelados (BO3) - BetBoom Storm Play May 25 $147 −$95 -65%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs G2 Esports (BO5) - VCT Americas Stage 1 May 24 $241 −$94 -39%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 24 $139 +$102 +73%
Rocket League: Manchester City Esports vs Vitality (BO7) - RLCS Major May 24 $124 +$16 +12%
Rocket League: Gentle Mates vs Twisted Minds (BO7) - RLCS Major Paris May 24 $201 −$198 -99%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs MIBR (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Playoffs May 24 $156 +$45 +29%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs NRG (BO5) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs May 24 $112 +$44 +40%
LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest (BO5) - LCS Playoffs May 24 $202 −$93 -46%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs May 23 $124 +$80 +64%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs May 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Rocket League: Manchester City Esports vs Shopify Rebellion (BO7) - RL May 23 $56 −$56 -100%
Rocket League: Karmine Corp vs Gentle Mates (BO7) - RLCS Major Paris P May 23 $111 −$111 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 24 $5 +$3 +59%
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Legacy (BO3) - BetBoom RUSH B! Summit Playoffs Apr 24 $4 $0 +7%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Apr 24 $22 −$22 -100%
Valorant: Karmine Corp vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alpha Apr 23 $3 +$2 +55%
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Crashers (BO3) - BetBoom RUSH B! Summit Playof Apr 23 $16 +$4 +27%
LoL: RED Academy vs paiN Gaming Academy (BO1) - Circuito Desafiante Re Apr 22 $14 +$6 +43%
LoL: Ei Nerd Esports vs Team Solid (BO1) - Circuito Desafiante Regular Apr 22 $44 −$44 -100%
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Shopify Rebellion Black (BO3) - VCL Apr 22 $7 +$3 +46%
Valorant: QoR vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage Apr 21 $43 −$33 -77%
LoL: Cloud9 vs Sentinels (BO3) - Esports World Cup North America Quali Apr 21 $19 −$16 -83%
LoL: RED Academy vs Vivo Keyd Stars Academy (BO1) - Circuito Desafiant Apr 21 $18 −$18 -98%
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Cheeki_Breeki (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Gr Apr 21 $35 +$14 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C or higher on April 21? Apr 21 $14 −$14 -100%
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs Division One (BO3) - VCL North America: Apr 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Sta Apr 21 $57 +$15 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $125 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 41¢ $126 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $200 6h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $117 27h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 52¢ $118 27h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $161 30h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $17 30h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 41¢ $74 46h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 36¢ $71 46h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $121 2d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 41¢ $51 2d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea SELL Hanwha Life Esports 79¢ $49 23d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea BUY Hanwha Life Esports 78¢ $49 23d
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs SELL LOS 100¢ $49 23d
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs BUY LOS 74¢ $37 23d
Valorant: QoR vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stag SELL QoR 100¢ $37 23d
Valorant: QoR vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stag BUY QoR 73¢ $27 24d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs SELL G2 Esports 100¢ $27 24d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs BUY G2 Esports 74¢ $20 24d
Valorant: Joblife vs UCAM Esports Club (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Playoffs SELL Joblife 19¢ $20 24d
Valorant: Joblife vs UCAM Esports Club (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Playoffs BUY Joblife 56¢ $60 24d
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs Nongshim Red Force (+1.5) SELL Hanwha Life Esports 100¢ $60 24d
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs Nongshim Red Force (+1.5) BUY Hanwha Life Esports 61¢ $37 24d
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA (+1.5) SELL T1 33¢ $37 24d
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA (+1.5) BUY T1 56¢ $65 24d
Thunder vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 100¢ $63 24d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 79¢ $50 24d
Counter-Strike: Galorys vs largadosypelados (BO3) - BetBoom Storm Play SELL largadosypelados 24¢ $52 24d
Counter-Strike: Galorys vs largadosypelados (BO3) - BetBoom Storm Play BUY largadosypelados 67¢ $147 24d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs G2 Esports (BO5) - VCT Americas Stage 1 SELL G2 Esports 34¢ $147 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $126.22 · official $126.22 (match) · 95 history records