Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:24:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6.5
score
45 0x4550…f741 sports 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 21d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$16,147 (+108%) realized +$16,222 · open −$75
Gross ROI / mkt +56% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +35% what you keep after slip
Net edge+35%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%10W / 14L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$597per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$318est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$925now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$431
7 days+$7,706
14 days+$14,772
30 days+$13,662
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$13,587
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+41.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +62.7% +47.2% 36% 36% +64.0%
≤30d 24 +55.8% +41.0% 42% 42% +80.2%
≤90d 24 +55.8% +41.0% 42% 42% +80.2%
all 24 +55.8% +41.0% 42% 42% +80.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +41.0% 42% +80.2%
10% +27.5% 42% +63.0%
15% +15.2% 42% +47.2%
20% +3.9% 42% +32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +99% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +56% · $-wt +99% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$817) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +34% → late +77% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,978 vs −$437 · ×4.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.23 per $1 lost it wins $3.23
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$925
Realized+$16,222
Unrealized−$75
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses10 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$318
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage21d
Avg bet$597
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $1,000 $925 −$75 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $2,348 −$2,300 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1,025 +$4,531 +442%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $409 −$400 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $307 −$300 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $307 −$300 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $410 −$400 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $409 −$400 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $307 +$943 +307%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $72 +$297 +414%
Will Málaga CF vs. UD Almería end in a draw? Jun 14 $3,063 +$6,945 +227%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $929 −$910 -98%
Will Morocco vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 08 $204 +$485 +238%
Will SC Sagamihara vs. Fujieda MYFC end in a draw? Jun 07 $26 +$54 +212%
Will Poland vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jun 07 $225 +$534 +238%
Will Wales vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 07 $393 +$890 +226%
Will Panama vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 07 $817 +$1,764 +216%
Will Albirex Niigata vs. Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo end in a draw? Jun 07 $1,519 +$3,339 +220%
Will Haiti vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 02 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Croatia vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 02 $225 −$220 -98%
Will Norway vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 01 $112 −$110 -98%
Will United States vs. Senegal end in a draw? May 31 $667 −$653 -98%
Will Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC end in a draw? May 28 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Egypt vs. Russia end in a draw? May 27 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? May 27 $7 −$7 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $512 1h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $512 3h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $817 4h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $1,531 4h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $409 7h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $1,025 16h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $307 23h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $307 27h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $410 29h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $409 46h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $307 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $72 3d
Will Málaga CF vs. UD Almería end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $3,063 3d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $929 6d
Will Morocco vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $204 10d
Will Panama vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $817 11d
Will Albirex Niigata vs. Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $498 11d
Will Albirex Niigata vs. Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $1,021 11d
Will Poland vs. Nigeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $225 14d
Will Haiti vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $102 15d
Will Wales vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $393 15d
Will Croatia vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $225 15d
Will Norway vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $112 17d
Will United States vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $667 17d
Will SC Sagamihara vs. Fujieda MYFC end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $26 19d
Will Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $14 20d
Will Egypt vs. Russia end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $7 21d
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 21d
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $4 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $925.00 · official $925.00 (match) · 39 history records