Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:48:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x4550…2398 world 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 160d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$183 (-31%) realized −$157 · open −$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +91% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +73% what you keep after slip
Net edge+73%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%5W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$241now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days−$178
14 days−$178
30 days−$178
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 85% −$197
other 14% +$3
crypto 2% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+72.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +90.7% +72.6% 45% 45% -59.5%
≤30d 11 +90.7% +72.6% 45% 45% -59.5%
≤90d 11 +90.7% +72.6% 45% 45% -59.5%
all 11 +90.7% +72.6% 45% 45% -59.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +72.6% 45% -59.5%
10% +56.0% 27% -63.4%
15% +41.0% 27% -66.9%
20% +27.1% 18% -70.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 76% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -55% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +91% · $-wt -55% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$35 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$241
Realized−$157
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses5 / 6
Open positions9
Markets (closed)11 / 20
History coverage160d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 52¢ 46¢ $186 $162 −$24 (-13%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 77¢ 82¢ $24 $26 +$2 (+6%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 84¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+19%)
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? No 51¢ 50¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 88¢ 88¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Yes 16¢ 24¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+47%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 16¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 6¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-97%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 17 $1 +$11 +1110%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $4 +$1 +16%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3 +$1 +21%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $14 +$6 +41%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $3 +$11 +374%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 13 $252 −$163 -65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 49¢ $50 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 54¢ $130 1h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 16¢ $5 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 49¢ $5 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 47¢ $2 2h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 85¢ $4 9h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 6¢ $5 31h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $1 31h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 82¢ $3 31h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $5 31h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 70¢ $14 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $9 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 21¢ $3 4d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes 12¢ $12 4d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? BUY No 51¢ $12 4d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes 12¢ $12 4d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY No 77¢ $24 4d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes 12¢ $24 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 56¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 4d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes 12¢ $20 4d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $8 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 4d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes 12¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 15¢ $11 4d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes 12¢ $11 4d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY Yes 34¢ $215 159d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $241.45 · official $241.45 (match) · 41 history records