Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:48:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
45 0x454f…bb79 other 115 markets active 2h ago coverage 412d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,249 (-7%) realized −$3,094 · open −$155
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate60%67W / 45L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$414per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$583now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$84
7 days+$146
14 days−$241
30 days−$136
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$603
crypto 30% −$1,752
sports 14% −$431
politics 1% −$85
culture 0% −$60
tech 0% −$43
economics 0% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -11.9% -20.3% 50% 50% -3.3%
≤30d 20 -5.3% -14.4% 50% 50% -11.0%
≤90d 22 -7.4% -16.2% 50% 50% -14.6%
all 112 -1.1% -10.5% 60% 41% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 41% -14.5%
10% -19.0% 29% -22.6%
15% -26.9% 23% -30.1%
20% -34.0% 14% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$179 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

412d coverage
Net worth$583
Realized−$3,094
Unrealized−$155
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses67 / 45
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions3
Markets (closed)112 / 115
History coverage412d
Avg bet$414
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 80¢ 58¢ $550 $402 −$148 (-27%)
Felix Protocol FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 88¢ 86¢ $180 $177 −$3 (-2%)
AI bubble burst in 2026? Yes 44¢ 20¢ $9 $4 −$5 (-55%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $403 +$123 +31%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $403 −$40 -10%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $373 +$114 +31%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $504 −$125 -25%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $402 −$45 -11%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 −$2 -4%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $402 +$74 +18%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $71 −$2 -2%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $402 +$79 +20%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $145 −$144 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$26 +26%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $179 +$86 +48%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $263 +$177 +67%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $782 −$780 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $243 +$157 +65%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $904 −$273 -30%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $565 +$332 +59%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 03 $321 +$255 +79%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 by December 31, 2026? May 30 $132 −$100 -76%
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? May 30 $172 −$49 -29%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 25 $2,110 −$682 -32%
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? Apr 08 $276 +$124 +45%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Feb 17 $76 −$22 -29%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $15 mi Jan 25 $880 −$40 -4%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Jan 24 $1,322 +$222 +17%
Fogo FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jan 16 $1,310 +$124 +10%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Jan 16 $537 +$8 +2%
Football.Fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jan 16 $450 +$29 +6%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-11? Jan 11 $275 −$185 -67%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $10 mi Jan 09 $372 +$24 +6%
Football.Fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jan 08 $67 −$43 -64%
Will Google (GOOGL) hit $375 before 2026?? Jan 01 $11 +$1 +14%
Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31? Jan 01 $945 +$55 +6%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Dec 31 $1,643 +$55 +3%
Hyperliquid all time high by December 31? Dec 30 $744 +$55 +7%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 30 $85 +$15 +17%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2025-12-30? Dec 30 $299 −$299 -100%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Dec 30 $919 −$213 -23%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Dec 30 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $4 mil Dec 29 $360 +$4 +1%
Lighter Airdrop on December 29? Dec 29 $144 −$122 -85%
Manchester United FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 1.5 Dec 26 $194 −$93 -48%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-23? Dec 23 $67 −$40 -60%
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 22? Dec 22 $146 −$86 -59%
Aston Villa FC vs. Manchester United FC: Both Teams to Score Dec 21 $31 +$18 +59%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 21 $54 +$26 +47%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-12-17? Dec 18 $20 +$15 +74%
Manchester United FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: Both Teams to Score Dec 17 $11 +$6 +56%
Manchester United FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 3.5 Dec 15 $28 −$14 -51%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 16? Dec 15 $7 +$35 +504%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 80¢ $553 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $403 47h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 55¢ $36 47h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 64¢ $127 2d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 75¢ $200 2d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $403 2d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $373 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 70¢ $375 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $504 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 76¢ $352 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL 58¢ $49 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $402 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY 58¢ $51 3d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 63¢ $69 4d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $71 4d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 84¢ $402 4d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $481 4d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $402 4d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $145 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 79¢ $101 5d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 76¢ $151 5d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 58¢ $115 5d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $179 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $263 7d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 91¢ $782 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 60¢ $243 8d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 65¢ $630 9d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $904 9d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY 62¢ $565 11d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 55¢ $181 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $582.97 · official $445.47 · 482 history records