Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:01:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x454e…36cb world 33 markets active 4h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$5,418 (+8%) realized +$6,291 · open −$873
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%12W / 20L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$1,982per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$5,810now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$90
7 days−$90
14 days−$3,092
30 days−$2,928
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% +$6,236
economics 36% −$987
crypto 4% −$2,297
finance 2% +$130
sports 1% −$214
politics 1% +$2,815
other 0% −$243
tech 0% −$82
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.7% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 10 -34.8% -41.0% 40% 40% -16.8%
≤90d 32 +15.3% +4.3% 38% 38% +0.7%
all 32 +15.3% +4.3% 38% 38% +0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.3% 38% +0.7%
10% -5.7% 25% -8.9%
15% -14.8% 22% -17.7%
20% -23.1% 16% -25.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$1,794) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -30% → late +61% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,198 vs −$407 · ×2.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.76 per $1 lost it wins $1.76
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$5,810
Realized+$6,291
Unrealized−$873
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses12 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage72d
Avg bet$1,982
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 19¢ 17¢ $6,683 $5,810 −$873 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet Jun 20 $13,589 −$90 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $3,310 −$3,310 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 11 $1,000 +$130 +13%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $306 +$178 +58%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 07 $2,307 −$2,188 -95%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $397 −$392 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $4,654 +$1,505 +32%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 31 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $10,762 +$1,407 +13%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 23 $107 −$68 -64%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 23 $100 −$40 -40%
Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 22? May 21 $428 +$2,415 +564%
Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 31? May 21 $52 +$425 +820%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 13 $251 −$82 -33%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026? May 13 $72 −$24 -34%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 13 $976 +$404 +41%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 12 $26 −$25 -96%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 09 $1,260 +$646 +51%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 06 $1,080 −$333 -31%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 06 $6,232 +$1,359 +22%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 06 $1,794 +$368 +20%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? May 05 $1,012 +$472 +47%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? May 01 $865 −$701 -81%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? May 01 $3,190 +$5,070 +159%
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? Apr 29 $190 −$132 -69%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30? Apr 27 $59 −$47 -80%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? Apr 24 $14 −$11 -79%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Apr 24 $247 −$12 -5%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Apr 24 $500 −$176 -35%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 22? Apr 22 $109 −$109 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 21 $201 −$201 -100%
US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026? Apr 21 $106 −$106 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL Yes 23¢ $4,094 3h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 17¢ $112 5h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 17¢ $10 5h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 17¢ $870 6h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 17¢ $1,740 6h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 17¢ $84 6h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 17¢ $61 6h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 17¢ $3,208 6h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 17¢ $4 6h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 22¢ $45 29h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 22¢ $85 29h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 22¢ $112 29h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 22¢ $112 29h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 22¢ $112 29h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 22¢ $112 29h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 22¢ $112 29h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 22¢ $45 29h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 22¢ $45 29h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 22¢ $85 29h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 22¢ $64 29h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 22¢ $112 29h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 22¢ $112 29h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 22¢ $11 29h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 22¢ $336 29h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 22¢ $60 29h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 22¢ $7 29h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 22¢ $56 29h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 22¢ $45 29h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 22¢ $112 29h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 22¢ $112 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,810.00 · official $5,810.00 (match) · 479 history records