Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:30:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

45
0x454d…e766
world · 52 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$11 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$11 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses23 / 29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)52 / 52
History coverage529d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%
Chart Positions 0 History 52 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days+$0
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $29 −$1 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $116 −$2 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $18 $0 +1%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $43 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $26 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $27 $0 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $43 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 07 $3 $0 +3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $95 −$1 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $97 +$2 +2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $14 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $105 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $82 −$1 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 01 $15 $0 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 01 $4 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $80 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $114 +$3 +3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 30 $38 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 29 $3 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $1 $0 +8%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $55 −$4 -7%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $35 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 25 $37 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 24 $38 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $38 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 21 $29 $0 +1%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 13 $12 −$3 -24%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 13 $8 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 12 $522 $0 +0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 12 $273 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 11 $230 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 09 $1 $0 +3%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will valid votes be between 36 million and 38 million in South Korean Jun 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? May 20 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Ontario in the next May 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 26 $10 $0 -2%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $5 $0 -0%
Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Can Apr 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Apr 24 $5 $0 +2%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio Apr 20 $5 $0 -6%
Will Mark Few make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of F Mar 20 $9 −$2 -25%
Will Trump and Elon say "FEMA" during their Feb 18 interview? Feb 28 $22 −$14 -65%
Will Alabama win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Feb 27 $9 $0 +2%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 5-10%? Feb 18 $8 +$2 +20%
Samford vs. Wofford Feb 16 $10 +$10 +96%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-02-15? Feb 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will Maya Moore make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of Feb 14 $13 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 80% −$3
other 16% −$5
politics 2% −$14
sports 1% +$10
weather 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 22¢ $10 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 22¢ $17 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 23¢ $29 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $41 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $43 10h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 68¢ $1 41h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 68¢ $8 41h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 68¢ $9 41h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 68¢ $9 42h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 67¢ $9 42h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $11 2d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 75¢ $10 2d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 75¢ $7 2d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 75¢ $26 2d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $43 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 43¢ $26 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $26 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 47¢ $3 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 47¢ $24 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 47¢ $27 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $43 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $43 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $3 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 31¢ $19 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 31¢ $9 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 31¢ $6 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -0.2% -9.7% 25% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 28 -0.7% -10.2% 36% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 32 -0.7% -10.1% 38% 0% -9.7%
all 52 -1.5% -10.9% 44% 6% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 6% -9.9%
10% -19.4% 2% -18.6%
15% -27.2% 2% -26.4%
20% -34.3% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 188 history records