Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T14:38:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

45
0x454c…99fe
crypto · 62 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$17 -17%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$17 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2
Realized−$17
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses8 / 53
Open positions1
Markets (closed)61 / 62
History coverage21d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 61 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$5
14 days−$8
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Antonio Gracias be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-30%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Down 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$3 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$7 +625%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$11 +1074%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET May 31 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET May 31 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET May 30 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET May 30 $2 +$3 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET May 30 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET May 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET May 30 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 29 $1 +$19 +1775%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 29 $1 +$11 +1074%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 97% −$17
tech 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $9 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 6h
Will Antonio Gracias be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Spac BUY Yes 3¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $2 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $2 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $2 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $2 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $2 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $2 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +76.7% +59.9% 23% 23% +12.8%
≤30d 61 +3.6% -6.3% 13% 13% -26.4%
≤90d 61 +3.6% -6.3% 13% 13% -26.4%
all 61 +3.6% -6.3% 13% 13% -26.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.3% 13% -26.4%
10% -15.2% 13% -33.5%
15% -23.4% 13% -39.9%
20% -30.9% 13% -45.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.10 · official $2.10 (match) · 80 history records