Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T09:35:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
45 0x454c…9664 crypto 32 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (62 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$248 (+17%) realized +$255 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +51% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip
Net edge+16%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate45%14W / 17L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day62.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$93now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$403
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (62 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+36.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +50.9% +36.5% 45% 42% +18.5%
≤30d 31 +50.9% +36.5% 45% 42% +18.5%
≤90d 31 +50.9% +36.5% 45% 42% +18.5%
all 31 +50.9% +36.5% 45% 42% +18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover62.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +36.5% 42% +18.5%
10% ← realistic here +23.5% 42% +7.2%
15% +11.5% 39% -3.2%
20% +0.6% 39% -12.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +51% · $-wt +31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +78% → late +25% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$76 vs −$38 · ×1.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$93
Realized+$255
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses14 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage1d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day62.0
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Down 26¢ 24¢ $100 $93 −$7 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 25 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 25 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 25 $110 −$36 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 25 $51 −$11 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 25 $62 +$45 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 25 $53 +$343 +647%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 25 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$8 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 25 $105 +$138 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 25 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 25 $52 +$87 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 25 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 25 $52 +$43 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 25 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 25 $32 +$7 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 25 $52 +$45 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$66 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 25 $4 +$30 +837%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$64 +244%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 25 $53 +$147 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 25 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$38 +146%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $53 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $52 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $52 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $52 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $52 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $53 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $4 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $44 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $14 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $3 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $6 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $52 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $41 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $25 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $52 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $53 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $53 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $26 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $26 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $52 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $15 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $28 57m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $93.02 · official $77.83 · 93 history records