Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:50:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
45 0x454b…5b8b sports 515 markets active 2h ago coverage 1140d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,378 (+2%) realized +$1,439 · open +$939
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate54%278W / 233L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$242per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$423est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$4,589now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$697
7 days−$122
14 days+$1,946
30 days+$3,112
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% +$347
sports 39% +$4,825
politics 2% −$2,655
world 1% −$583
crypto 0% −$39
economics 0% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +7.9% -2.4% 54% 54% -10.9%
≤30d 135 +6.5% -3.6% 58% 54% -0.6%
≤90d 275 +8.5% -1.9% 57% 51% -5.9%
all 511 +6.5% -3.7% 54% 50% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.7% 50% -8.4%
10% -12.9% 43% -17.2%
15% -21.3% 38% -25.2%
20% -29.0% 32% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$162 vs −$190 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1140d coverage
Net worth$4,589
Realized+$1,439
Unrealized+$939
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses278 / 233
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Est. fees paid−$423
Open positions4
Markets (closed)511 / 515
History coverage1140d
Avg bet$242
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 511 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 Under 82¢ 96¢ $2,860 $3,366 +$506 (+18%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Under 26¢ 44¢ $676 $1,131 +$455 (+67%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $99 $82 −$17 (-18%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $15 $10 −$5 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 213 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $329 −$323 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $988 −$969 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $415 +$895 +216%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $304 −$300 -99%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $350 −$344 -98%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $1,236 +$672 +54%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $202 +$145 +71%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $131 +$40 +31%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $143 −$140 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $220 +$320 +146%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $194 −$192 -99%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $252 −$248 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $440 −$433 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $788 +$600 +76%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $286 −$281 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $23 +$7 +32%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $329 +$361 +109%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 $0 +31%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $146 −$146 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $307 −$303 -99%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $96 +$204 +212%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $30 +$70 +233%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $35 +$15 +43%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $257 +$463 +180%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $132 +$40 +31%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $72 +$38 +54%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $16 −$15 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $175 +$66 +38%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $176 +$24 +14%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $184 +$16 +9%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$6 +6%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $112 −$112 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $418 +$538 +129%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $84 +$11 +13%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $152 −$150 -99%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $322 −$159 -49%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $608 +$112 +18%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $246 −$246 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $243 +$7 +3%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $206 +$44 +21%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $1,096 +$447 +41%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $85 −$84 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $150 −$58 -39%
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Panathinaikos Jun 13 $69 +$23 +33%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 13 $162 −$162 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $77 +$103 +135%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 26¢ $691 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 38¢ $329 4h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 82¢ $2,328 5h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 82¢ $14 6h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 82¢ $149 6h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 82¢ $82 6h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 82¢ $289 6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 33¢ $219 9h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 33¢ $769 12h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 31¢ $415 29h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 BUY Under 42¢ $5 43h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 BUY Under 42¢ $42 43h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 BUY Under 42¢ $63 43h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 BUY Under 42¢ $194 43h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY No 43¢ $350 2d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $40 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 2d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $103 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $102 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 76¢ $131 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 BUY Under 40¢ $220 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 BUY Under 37¢ $103 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 BUY Under 37¢ $6 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 BUY Under 37¢ $85 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $252 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 41¢ $440 3d
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $788 4d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 94¢ $300 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $286 4d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 75¢ $23 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,589.09 · official $4,589.09 (match) · 1823 history records