Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:37:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
45 0x4549…66e3 other 6 markets active 4d ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1 (+11%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% +$2
sports 11% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +21.6% +10.0% 33% 33% +1.6%
≤30d 6 +21.6% +10.0% 33% 33% +1.6%
≤90d 6 +21.6% +10.0% 33% 33% +1.6%
all 6 +21.6% +10.0% 33% 33% +1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.0% 33% +1.6%
10% -0.5% 33% -8.1%
15% -10.1% 33% -17.0%
20% -18.9% 33% -25.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.76 per $1 lost it wins $1.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 $0 -5%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1 $0 -8%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $3 $0 -9%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +96%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +155%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 57¢ $2 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 25¢ $3 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 3d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 52¢ $1 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 12 history records