Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:39:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x4548…4931 crypto 1024 markets active 1h ago coverage 25d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 25d only
✗ bot/MM pace (129 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$36 (-1%) realized −$36 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate47%482W / 553L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day129.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$290
7 days−$208
14 days−$192
30 days−$372
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$155
sports 4% +$70
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (129 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 324 -19.8% -27.4% 37% 35% -27.9%
≤30d 1035 -9.3% -18.0% 47% 43% -16.4%
≤90d 1035 -9.3% -18.0% 47% 43% -16.4%
all 1035 -9.3% -18.0% 47% 43% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover129.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.0% 43% -16.4%
10% ← realistic here -25.8% 39% -24.4%
15% -33.0% 34% -31.7%
20% -39.5% 30% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses482 / 553
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1035 / 1024
History coverage25d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day129.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1035 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $2 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $3 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records