Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T17:19:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x4546…41d4 crypto 425 markets active 1d ago coverage 662d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$729 (-6%) realized −$729 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate32%138W / 287L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$365
7 days−$365
14 days−$667
30 days−$1,241
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$1,605
politics 1% −$95
other 1% −$20
sports 0% −$12
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-32.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -46.3% -51.4% 37% 25% -20.1%
≤30d 247 -17.3% -25.2% 35% 29% -22.6%
≤90d 378 -25.9% -33.0% 33% 28% -24.6%
all 425 -25.0% -32.2% 32% 28% -24.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.2% 28% -24.4%
10% -38.7% 22% -31.7%
15% -44.6% 18% -38.3%
20% -50.0% 15% -44.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$13 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

662d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$729
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses138 / 287
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)425 / 425
History coverage662d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 425 Trades
no open positions (156 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 24 $20 −$10 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 24 $17 −$16 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 24 $45 −$7 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 24 $11 −$4 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 24 $40 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 23 $57 −$11 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 23 $68 −$16 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 23 $17 −$16 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 23 $53 −$16 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 23 $73 −$20 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 23 $55 −$11 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 23 $57 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 23 $113 −$85 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 23 $134 −$19 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 23 $145 −$20 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 23 $142 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 23 $208 −$68 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 23 $124 +$21 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 23 $26 −$24 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 23 $22 −$21 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 23 $204 +$31 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 23 $198 +$7 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 23 $167 −$34 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 23 $81 −$57 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 23 $90 +$20 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 23 $69 +$50 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 23 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 23 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 23 $22 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 23 $235 +$47 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 23 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 23 $74 +$17 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 23 $61 +$10 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 23 $126 −$37 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 23 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 23 $157 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 23 $53 +$13 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 23 $76 +$14 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 23 $124 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 23 $18 −$17 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 23 $75 +$7 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 23 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 23 $132 +$35 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 23 $129 +$25 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $14 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2979 history records