Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:05:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x4544…7db1 crypto 71 markets active 0h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$66 (-7%) realized −$41 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate49%34W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$66
7 days+$67
14 days+$79
30 days+$80
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 42% −$2
world 27% −$118
sports 23% +$33
other 7% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-26.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +5.5% -4.5% 60% 60% +18.1%
≤30d 12 +13.5% +2.6% 67% 67% +21.0%
≤90d 69 -18.5% -26.3% 49% 42% -15.0%
all 69 -18.5% -26.3% 49% 42% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.3% 42% -15.0%
10% -33.3% 36% -23.1%
15% -39.8% 26% -30.5%
20% -45.7% 20% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$7 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$41
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses34 / 35
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)69 / 71
History coverage76d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Germany 74¢ 66¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-10%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Over 55¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 0.5 Jun 29 $79 +$22 +28%
Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $18 +$21 +114%
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 29 $43 +$15 +34%
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $5 +$9 +197%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $30 +$4 +14%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $29 +$8 +29%
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -93%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $4 −$3 -68%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 18 $15 +$13 +85%
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +21%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 13 $37 −$22 -61%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 12 $56 −$50 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Apr 28 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Apr 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Apr 25 $1 +$1 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Apr 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Apr 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Apr 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Apr 24 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Apr 24 $6 −$2 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Apr 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Apr 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Apr 23 $30 +$8 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Apr 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Apr 23 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Apr 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Apr 23 $5 +$3 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Apr 23 $4 +$4 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Apr 23 $43 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Apr 23 $45 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Apr 22 $45 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Apr 22 $7 +$9 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Apr 22 $11 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Apr 22 $10 +$9 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Apr 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Apr 22 $2 +$2 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Apr 22 $4 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Apr 22 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Apr 22 $12 +$10 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Apr 22 $3 −$2 -78%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $35 −$35 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $26 −$11 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Apr 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Apr 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Apr 20 $4 −$2 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Apr 20 $3 +$2 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Apr 18 $20 +$7 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 74¢ $50 23m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $20 57m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $101 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 0.5 BUY Over 78¢ $79 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $18 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $58 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 74¢ $43 5h
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 0.5 BUY Over 33¢ $5 26h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 47h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 87¢ $30 47h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 99¢ $37 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 76¢ $29 2d
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 3d
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 3d
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL Yes 52¢ $28 11d
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL Yes 11¢ $6 18d
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 47d
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 28¢ $15 47d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 22¢ $15 47d
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $6 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $0 65d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $7 65d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 65d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $2 65d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 65d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $2 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 66d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.95 · official $44.95 (match) · 160 history records