Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:34:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x4542…0e60 other 115 markets active 2h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,389 (+1%) realized +$1,390 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate22%25W / 89L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$1,308per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$1,342now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$18
14 days−$27
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 40% −$65
other 38% +$1,379
sports 18% +$66
world 2% −$6
economics 1% −$2
crypto 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 23 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 75 -14.2% -22.4% 8% 1% -10.3%
all 114 +3.2% -6.6% 22% 13% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 13% -8.7%
10% -15.5% 13% -17.4%
15% -23.7% 13% -25.4%
20% -31.2% 10% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,783) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +10% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$100 vs −$13 · ×7.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.21 per $1 lost it wins $2.21
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$1,342
Realized+$1,390
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses25 / 89
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)114 / 115
History coverage125d
Avg bet$1,308
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,343 $1,342 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $873 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $650 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $4,962 −$5 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $6,625 −$6 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,783 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $1,234 −$2 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $964 −$2 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $1,152 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $964 −$2 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $1,142 −$2 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $2,180 −$3 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $3,367 −$4 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $885 −$1 -0%
Will Solana reach $110 in May? Jun 04 $352 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? Jun 04 $508 +$2 +0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 31 $378 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 29 $516 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $1,665 −$2 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 29 $467 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $422 −$1 -0%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $561 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $2,104 −$3 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $563 −$1 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $1,366 −$2 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $8,162 −$9 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $1,320 −$2 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 06 $1,219 −$2 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $1,256 −$2 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $1,272 −$2 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $2,291 −$3 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $1,386 −$2 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $1,091 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 28 $2,448 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 28 $3,463 −$3 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $1,232 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $3,533 −$4 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $4,433 −$4 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 11 $4,511 −$5 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $1,065 −$1 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $2,347 −$2 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 05 $908 −$1 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 04 $2,343 −$2 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 03 $4,100 −$5 -0%
EdgeX FDV above $5B one day after launch? Apr 02 $80 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 30? Mar 31 $64 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 29 $2,242 −$2 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 29 $2,258 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 29 $1,021 −$1 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $2,171 −$2 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 27 $1,038 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,343 1h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $872 2d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $873 3d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $649 4d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $650 4d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,352 5d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,354 5d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,044 5d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,046 6d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,235 6d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,237 6d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,232 6d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,234 7d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $962 11d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $964 11d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,151 11d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,152 11d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $962 12d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $964 13d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,140 13d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,142 13d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $967 13d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $969 14d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $877 14d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $879 14d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $884 14d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $885 15d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $377 18d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $378 18d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $516 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,342.40 · official $1,342.40 (match) · 395 history records