Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T02:42:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x453c…b749 crypto 486 markets active 2h ago coverage 23d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 23d only
✗ bot/MM pace (99 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,699 (-17%) realized −$1,669 · open −$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate33%192W / 387L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day99.2pace
Fees−$51est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$90now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$250
7 days−$327
14 days−$306
30 days−$1,337
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% −$856
sports 35% −$274
other 6% +$17
politics 2% −$25
world 0% $0
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (99 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-35.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 212 -63.4% -66.9% 17% 17% -55.3%
≤30d 579 -28.4% -35.2% 33% 29% -21.3%
≤90d 579 -28.4% -35.2% 33% 29% -21.3%
all 579 -28.4% -35.2% 33% 29% -21.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover99.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -35.2% 29% -21.3%
10% ← realistic here -41.4% 27% -28.8%
15% -47.1% 24% -35.7%
20% -52.3% 19% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 43% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -54% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$11 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$90
Realized−$1,669
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses192 / 387
Est. fees paid−$51
Open positions17
Markets (closed)579 / 486
History coverage23d ⚠
Avg bet$20
Trades / day99.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 579 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $39 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? No 37¢ 35¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 42¢ 56¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+34%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? No 24¢ 20¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-15%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 93¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 23¢ 21¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 39¢ 64¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+64%)
Will Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Will Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-15%)
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-18%)
Will Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-33%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-47%)
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 35¢ 33¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will Keir Starmer be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-99%)
Will Trump say "Mutilation" during Faith & Freedom Coalition Conference? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 166 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5 Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 29 $2 −$4 -191%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-4.5) Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
AC Monza vs. US Catanzaro 1929: O/U 5.5 Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 11.5 Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: Draw at halftime? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will CD Leganés vs. CD Mirandés end in a draw? Jun 29 $2 −$3 -191%
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5 Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Czechia vs. Kosovo end in a draw? Jun 29 $0 −$8 -13214%
Rosenborg BK vs. FK Bodø/Glimt: Both Teams to Score Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5 Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Poland (-1.5) Jun 29 $1 −$9 -970%
Will Cusco FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Kawasaki Frontale: Both Teams to Score Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 30, 4PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
KFUM-Kameratene Oslo vs. Tromsø IL: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Renofa Yamaguchi FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
SE Palmeiras vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $1 $0 +42%
Vålerenga Fotball vs. Kristiansund BK: O/U 3.5 Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Málaga CF (-1.5) Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 30, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
CA Paranaense vs. Mirassol FC: Draw at halftime? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Real Zaragoza vs. Málaga CF: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 29, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 30, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5 Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Clube Náutico Capibaribe (-1.5) Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Norway vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
CF Universidad de Chile vs. CD Concepción: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Canada vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 30, 9AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 30, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
UD Almería vs. Real Valladolid CF: O/U 0.5 Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 30, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 30, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 29, 11PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
AC Goianiense vs. Goiás EC: O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Aalesunds FK vs. Hamarkameratene: Both Teams to Score Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Kawasaki Frontale: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 29, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 10.5 Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5 Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: UD Almería (-1.5) Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $3 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $3 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $3 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $3 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $0 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $89.82 · official $89.83 (match) · 3500 history records