Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:06:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
45 0x453c…ae42 other 265 markets active 0h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$468 (-1%) realized −$469 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate63%166W / 97L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$125per market
Trades / day8.9pace
Fees−$58est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$291now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$245
7 days−$1
14 days−$152
30 days+$492
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% +$250
sports 27% +$73
finance 13% −$984
politics 12% +$223
world 4% −$76
culture 3% −$60
tech 2% −$49
crypto 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -8.8% -17.5% 60% 40% -9.5%
≤30d 69 -1.8% -11.2% 65% 39% -6.5%
≤90d 250 -2.2% -11.5% 64% 40% -11.1%
all 263 -2.9% -12.1% 63% 41% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 41% -11.2%
10% -20.5% 26% -19.7%
15% -28.2% 16% -27.5%
20% -35.2% 11% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$51 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$291
Realized−$469
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses166 / 97
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$58
Open positions2
Markets (closed)263 / 265
History coverage97d
Avg bet$125
Trades / day8.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 263 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $230 $229 −$1 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 57¢ 60¢ $60 $63 +$3 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $286 +$41 +14%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $225 +$9 +4%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 −$19 -93%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $37 +$21 +57%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $500 +$14 +3%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $497 +$60 +12%
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin Jun 18 $525 +$119 +23%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $455 −$26 -6%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $217 −$12 -5%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $216 −$9 -4%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $366 −$365 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $882 +$52 +6%
Will "Obsession" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on Ju Jun 14 $521 +$177 +34%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $156 +$37 +24%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $235 −$235 -100%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 10 $779 +$108 +14%
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? Jun 08 $206 +$47 +23%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 08 $309 −$3 -1%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $70 −$69 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $48 −$48 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $40 +$8 +20%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $502 −$496 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $161 −$27 -17%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $600 +$15 +2%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 02 $40 −$40 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka Jun 01 $365 +$35 +10%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $30 −$30 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 01 $51 +$31 +62%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 01 $351 +$63 +18%
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the May 31 $1,626 +$147 +9%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $493 +$46 +9%
Roland Garros WTA: Coco Gauff vs Anastasia Potapova May 30 $34 −$34 -99%
Atlanta Dream vs. PortlandFire May 30 $99 +$10 +10%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Chicago Sky May 30 $71 +$27 +38%
Roland Garros ATP: Quentin Halys vs Alexander Zverev May 29 $31 −$24 -78%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $22 +$79 +365%
Joao Fonseca vs. Novak Djokovic: Total Sets O/U 3.5 May 29 $21 −$2 -8%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 29 $129 +$265 +206%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Racing Club win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $4 $0 +7%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Hamad Medjedovic May 27 $3 $0 +17%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Dino Prizmic May 27 $2 +$2 +97%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Kaitlin Quevedo May 27 $2 $0 +1%
Roland Garros WTA: Coco Gauff vs Taylor Townsend May 26 $34 +$3 +10%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $32 +$1 +4%
Roland Garros ATP: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Novak Djokovic May 25 $1,637 +$627 +38%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $82 −$77 -94%
Roland Garros WTA: Francesca Jones vs Beatriz Haddad Maia May 24 $159 −$141 -89%
Roland Garros ATP: Tomas Etcheverry vs Nuno Borges May 24 $91 +$14 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $326 3m
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 96¢ $235 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 99¢ $235 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 95¢ $225 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 88¢ $227 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $462 9h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $61 9h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 9h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes $0 18h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes $1 18h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 19h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 100¢ $515 27h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 97¢ $500 27h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $37 28h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 89¢ $497 41h
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin BUY Yes 86¢ $19 4d
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin BUY Yes 85¢ $52 4d
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin BUY Yes 85¢ $167 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 32¢ $51 4d
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin BUY Yes 84¢ $185 4d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 13¢ $145 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $188 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $190 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $366 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $198 5d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 5d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 5d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 15¢ $150 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $203 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $291.35 · official $291.35 (match) · 917 history records