Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:04:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
45 0x453a…81d2 crypto 42 markets active 0h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$11,745 (-39%) realized −$7,205 · open −$4,540
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate24%4W / 13L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$720per market
Trades / day18.2pace
Fees−$181est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$10,138now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1,663
14 days−$3,979
30 days−$4,752
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 28% −$2,698
economics 28% −$945
world 17% −$2,479
other 16% −$3,152
sports 11% +$95
finance 1% −$99
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)+2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -63.5% -67.0% 0% 0% -57.8%
≤30d 13 -61.9% -65.5% 15% 8% -65.2%
≤90d 17 +13.8% +2.9% 24% 18% -62.2%
all 17 +13.8% +2.9% 24% 18% -62.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.9% 18% -62.2%
10% -6.9% 18% -65.9%
15% -15.9% 18% -69.2%
20% -24.2% 18% -72.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 91% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -62% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt -62% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$701) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +94% → late -58% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
25.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$375 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$10,138
Realized−$7,205
Unrealized−$4,540
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses4 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$181
Open positions25
Markets (closed)17 / 42
History coverage65d
Avg bet$720
Trades / day18.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes $5,155 $4,604 −$551 (-11%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? No 16¢ $1,034 $2,005 +$971 (+94%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? Yes $993 $1,049 +$56 (+6%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Yes $3,170 $644 −$2,526 (-80%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 June 15-21? Yes $464 $522 +$58 (+12%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Yes 10¢ $601 $304 −$296 (-49%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? No $149 $182 +$33 (+22%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? Yes 14¢ $1,714 $163 −$1,551 (-91%)
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 58¢ 55¢ $174 $162 −$12 (-7%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? No 13¢ $79 $144 +$66 (+83%)
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? Yes 15¢ $613 $84 −$530 (-86%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? Yes 12¢ 16¢ $60 $80 +$20 (+33%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes $47 $55 +$8 (+17%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 17? Yes 16¢ $21 $48 +$27 (+129%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? No $33 $43 +$10 (+30%)
Will inflation reach more than 8% in 2026? Yes $28 $15 −$12 (-44%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? Yes 14¢ $43 $11 −$32 (-74%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 35¢ 30¢ $12 $11 −$2 (-15%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes $240 $8 −$232 (-97%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Yes 19¢ $45 $2 −$43 (-97%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 80¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+13%)
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? Yes 19¢ 13¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-30%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? No 25¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No 19¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 14 $1,964 −$1,221 -62%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $708 −$201 -28%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 11? Jun 11 $279 −$242 -87%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? Jun 10 $172 −$67 -39%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 04 $2 +$1 +53%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 03 $2,421 −$2,017 -83%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? Jun 03 $201 −$201 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $937 +$18 +2%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30? Jun 03 $55 −$45 -81%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 29 $118 −$76 -65%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 25 $139 −$70 -50%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? May 24 $701 −$626 -89%
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026? May 08 $72 +$108 +149%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by May 31? May 06 $149 −$12 -8%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? Apr 19 $106 +$11 +11%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 16 $164 −$94 -57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No $13 10m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No $60 10m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No $3 10m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No $2 10m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No $2 10m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No $4 10m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No $2 11m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No $1 11m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No $4 11m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No $3 11m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No $3 11m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No $51 11m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No $1 11m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No $6 12m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? BUY No $84 13m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No 10¢ $119 16m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No $1 16m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No $52 17m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No $4 17m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No $69 17m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No $123 18m
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $64 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes $13 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes $115 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes $26 1h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 60¢ $112 1h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 62¢ $93 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,138.01 · official $9,781.87 · 1188 history records