Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:21:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

45
0x4536…afbb
crypto · 51 markets active 0h ago
2.0score
+$79 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$204 · open +$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$365
Realized+$204
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses23 / 23
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions5
Markets (closed)46 / 51
History coverage3d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day21.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%
Chart Positions 5 History 46 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$204
7 days+$204
14 days+$204
30 days+$204
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Over 2¢ 2¢ $100 $113 +$13 (+13%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Down 50¢ 49¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Netherlands 9¢ 8¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Qatar to score first vs. Switzerland? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $103 +$95 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $104 +$152 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $42 +$50 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $42 +$53 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $41 +$42 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $42 −$40 -96%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $51 −$44 -85%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $51 +$223 +434%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $206 −$206 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 14 $103 +$85 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $102 +$93 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 14 $52 +$46 +90%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 +$68 +442%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 14 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 14 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 14 $103 +$93 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 14 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $103 +$90 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 14 $103 +$91 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 14 $103 +$86 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $52 −$46 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 14 $104 +$104 +100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$57 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 14 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$22 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$22 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$21 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$22 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$24 +93%
Qatar to score first vs. Switzerland? Jun 13 $36 −$35 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $112 +$117 +105%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 81% −$170
sports 10% +$152
other 9% +$227
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $103 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $104 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $42 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $42 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 SELL Over 0¢ $8 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 9¢ $103 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 2¢ $103 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 SELL Over 22¢ $275 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $41 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $52 3h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 2¢ $51 7h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 4¢ $51 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $206 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $103 14h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $83 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $103 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $102 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $52 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $103 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $103 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +10.6% +0.1% 50% 48% -3.0%
≤30d 46 +10.6% +0.1% 50% 48% -3.0%
≤90d 46 +10.6% +0.1% 50% 48% -3.0%
all 46 +10.6% +0.1% 50% 48% -3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover21.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.1% 48% -3.0%
10% ← realistic here -9.5% 48% -12.3%
15% -18.2% 48% -20.7%
20% -26.2% 48% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $365.29 · official $365.29 (match) · 82 history records