Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T18:38:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

45
0x4536…f41b
sports · 6 markets active 2h ago
8.0score
+$553 +40%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$823 · open −$270
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$84
Realized+$823
Unrealized−$270
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions2
Markets (closed)4 / 6
History coverage20d
Avg bet$233
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 4 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$886
7 days+$886
14 days+$886
30 days+$823
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 PARIVISION 38¢ 16¢ $193 $84 −$109 (-57%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 MOUZ 33¢ 0¢ $161 $0 −$161 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships Playoffs Team Falcons 17¢ 0¢ $63 $0 −$63 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $198 +$221 +112%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $198 +$244 +123%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $576 +$421 +73%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P May 24 $65 −$63 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 100% +$553
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+37.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +102.7% +83.4% 100% 100% +73.0%
≤30d 4 +52.1% +37.6% 75% 75% +62.4%
≤90d 4 +52.1% +37.6% 75% 75% +62.4%
all 4 +52.1% +37.6% 75% 75% +62.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +37.6% 75% +62.4%
10% +24.4% 75% +46.9%
15% +12.4% 75% +32.7%
20% +1.4% 75% +19.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.92 · official $83.92 (match) · 9 history records