Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:47:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x4534…821d weather 221 markets active 1h ago coverage 557d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$31 (-1%) realized −$31 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate52%114W / 106L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 29% $0
politics 24% −$6
other 19% $0
crypto 15% $0
sports 6% −$19
tech 4% $0
culture 2% −$8
world 1% $0
finance 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.0% -9.5% 67% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 69 -0.0% -9.6% 39% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 158 -0.0% -9.5% 47% 0% -9.5%
all 220 -5.6% -14.6% 52% 0% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 0% -10.2%
10% -22.8% 0% -18.8%
15% -30.2% 0% -26.7%
20% -37.1% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

557d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses114 / 106
Open positions1
Markets (closed)220 / 221
History coverage557d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 220 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 46°C on June 26? Jun 25 $18 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 82°F or higher on Jun Jun 25 $7 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 26°C or below on June 2 Jun 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 31°C on June 26? Jun 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 84°F or higher on June 25? Jun 25 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C on June 25? Jun 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 60-61°F on June Jun 25 $19 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C or below on June 25? Jun 25 $22 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $9 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $21 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 4? Jun 04 $11 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $73,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $34 $0 +0%
Will another outcome occur in the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election? Jun 03 $6 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C or higher on June 3? Jun 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 54-55°F on Ju Jun 03 $9 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on Ju Jun 03 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Democratic Party of Korea win 0 or 1 seats in South Korea’s J Jun 03 $32 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on June 3? Jun 03 $26 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 3? Jun 03 $29 $0 +0%
Will "The Crash" be the top US Netflix movie this week? Jun 02 $21 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $11 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 2? Jun 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will Lindsey Horvath finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Jun 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on June 2? Jun 02 $14 $0 -0%
Will Nicholas Thompson advance from the 2026 California Governor prima Jun 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will David Thelen advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will Don Primus be the Democratic Nominee for IA-02? Jun 01 $6 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C or higher on June 2? Jun 01 $6 $0 -0%
Will Michael Anderson be the Democratic Nominee for NJ-12? Jun 01 $15 $0 -0%
Will Phil Foden be included in England's official 2026 World Cup squad Jun 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will Katie Bansil be the Democratic nominee for NJ-06? Jun 01 $10 $0 -0%
Will Matt Rains be the Democratic nominee for MT-01? Jun 01 $7 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 60-61°F on June Jun 01 $6 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 1? Jun 01 $22 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 60-61°F on May 31? Jun 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will BW Industrial Holdings’ market cap be between $125M and $140M at Jun 01 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 57°F or below on June 1? Jun 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on June 1? Jun 01 $6 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 May 25-31? Jun 01 $6 $0 -0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by May 31? Jun 01 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Ornn H100 Index hit $2.00 (LOW) by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $17 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $29 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 39°C on May 31? May 31 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on May 30? May 30 $7 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 30? May 30 $18 $0 -0%
Will gas hit (High) $5.00 by May 31? May 30 $9 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on May 30? May 30 $6 $0 +0%
Will Dominic Fritz be the next Prime Minister of Romania? May 30 $8 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C or below on May 30? May 30 $13 $0 -0%
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 30 $30 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $26 32m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 46°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $11 41m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 46°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 82°F or higher on Jun SELL No 100¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 26°C or below on June 2 SELL No 100¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 31°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $28 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 46°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $18 2h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 31°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $28 5h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 84°F or higher on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 84°F or higher on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $20 6h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $14 6h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 60-61°F on June SELL No 100¢ $19 6h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C or below on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $22 6h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 82°F or higher on Jun BUY No 100¢ $7 18h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $14 22h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 60-61°F on June BUY No 100¢ $19 26h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C or below on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $7 28h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 26°C or below on June 2 BUY No 100¢ $8 33h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C or below on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $15 35h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 84°F or higher on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $25 35h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $9 38h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $21 17d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 4? SELL No 100¢ $4 21d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 4? SELL No 100¢ $2 21d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 4? SELL No 100¢ $5 21d
Will Bitcoin reach $73,000 on June 3? SELL No 100¢ $22 22d
Will Bitcoin reach $73,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $11 22d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $11 22d
Will Bitcoin reach $73,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $22 22d
Will another outcome occur in the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election? SELL No 100¢ $0 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.39 · official $26.39 (match) · 512 history records