Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:53:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x4533…33ce sports 32 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized −$2 · open +$8
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate55%12W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$379now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$59
sports 39% −$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -10.3% -18.8% 55% 50% -10.4%
≤30d 22 -10.3% -18.8% 55% 50% -10.4%
≤90d 22 -10.3% -18.8% 55% 50% -10.4%
all 22 -10.3% -18.8% 55% 50% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.8% 50% -10.4%
10% -26.6% 36% -19.0%
15% -33.7% 27% -26.8%
20% -40.2% 14% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$10 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$379
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses12 / 10
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions9
Markets (closed)22 / 32
History coverage6d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 76¢ $150 $157 +$7 (+5%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 74¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-1%)
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Under 78¢ 78¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+1%)
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 44¢ 46¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 Over 63¢ 64¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Over 59¢ 58¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $50 +$22 +44%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $10 +$7 +70%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $4 +$3 +67%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $15 +$6 +40%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 $0 -4%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $43 +$25 +57%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $6 −$5 -90%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $22 −$12 -54%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $39 −$38 -99%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $81 +$2 +3%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $14 +$4 +26%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 +$3 +31%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $44 +$17 +38%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $17 −$17 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $14 +$3 +18%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $14 $0 -3%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $13 +$2 +18%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $19 +$3 +16%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 $0 -3%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $9 −$9 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $14 −$14 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $4 20m
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $5 27m
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 1h
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $25 1h
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 62¢ $35 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 78¢ $12 9h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 58¢ $10 9h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $5 10h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $4 19h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 71¢ $15 22h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 60¢ $10 22h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 23h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 24h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $10 24h
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 24h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $151 28h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $101 29h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes $1 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $6 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $6 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $39 2d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 77¢ $39 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 81¢ $5 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 20¢ $5 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $18 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $14 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 AND Will Portugal win on 2026- BUY 65¢ $47 3d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $10 3d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $40 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $44 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $378.99 · official $378.99 (match) · 58 history records