Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:40:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
45 0x4533…0e20 world 90 markets active 1h ago coverage 448d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$32 (+1%) realized +$32 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate36%32W / 57L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$7
14 days−$6
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 79% +$25
other 13% +$3
politics 3% $0
economics 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
culture 1% $0
sports 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -2.1% -11.4% 17% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 33 -0.5% -10.0% 39% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 43 +5.6% -4.5% 44% 2% -9.1%
all 89 +5.7% -4.4% 36% 4% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.4% 4% -9.0%
10% -13.5% 2% -17.7%
15% -21.9% 2% -25.7%
20% -29.5% 2% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.47 per $1 lost it wins $2.47
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

448d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses32 / 57
Open positions1
Markets (closed)89 / 90
History coverage448d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 24 $96 $0 -0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 24 $89 −$1 -1%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $80 +$2 +2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $12 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $456 −$3 -1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 22 $9 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $55 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $16 −$4 -25%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $58 −$2 -4%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $15 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $177 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $22 +$1 +3%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $232 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 16 $132 +$1 +1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $134 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $121 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $58 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $8 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $133 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $122 −$2 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $12 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $107 +$3 +3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $131 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $139 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $381 +$1 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 06 $195 +$9 +4%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $193 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $110 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $127 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $126 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $114 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $198 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 27 $357 +$9 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $190 +$2 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 25 $37 −$8 -22%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $33 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $142 +$10 +7%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $101 +$1 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 21 $20 +$2 +10%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $96 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 20 $104 +$2 +2%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 18 $115 +$1 +0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 14 $4 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $1 $0 +3%
Will Inter Miami CF win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 24 $0 $0 +350%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 Jun 06 $28 $0 -0%
Will Kim Moon-soo win 3rd place in the South Korean presidential elect Jun 04 $1 $0 +8%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 04 $27 $0 +0%
Will Isack Hadjar finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Jun 03 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 03 $28 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $96 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $75 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $20 3h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $61 7h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $27 7h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $89 10h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 48¢ $82 13h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 47¢ $80 17h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes $0 19h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes $4 19h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes $4 19h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes $3 19h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes $1 20h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes $12 25h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $82 28h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $82 31h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $9 35h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $9 38h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $36 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $62 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $18 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $82 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $35 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $6 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $6 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $36 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $17 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $55 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.74 · official $0.00 (match) · 372 history records