Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:17:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x4532…a636 sports 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$334 (+13%) realized +$334 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate91%21W / 2L
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day39.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% +$154
sports 30% −$66
world 2% +$1
politics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -2.2% -11.5% 91% 4% -6.5%
≤30d 23 -2.2% -11.5% 91% 4% -6.5%
≤90d 23 -2.2% -11.5% 91% 4% -6.5%
all 23 -2.2% -11.5% 91% 4% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.5% 4% -6.5%
10% ← realistic here -20.0% 4% -15.5%
15% -27.7% 4% -23.6%
20% -34.8% 4% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$132 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$334
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses21 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage1d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day39.0
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump publicly insult Mojtaba Khamenei by Friday? Jun 21 $42 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast say "Roblox" during his next gaming YouTube video? Jun 21 $398 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast say "Wife" during his next gaming YouTube video? Jun 21 $71 $0 +0%
Gonzalo Plata: 4+ shots Jun 21 $30 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 21 $47 +$1 +1%
Anthony Valencia: 3+ shots Jun 21 $25 $0 +0%
Anthony Valencia: 4+ shots Jun 21 $25 $0 +0%
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings Jun 21 $94 −$67 -71%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $371 −$198 -53%
Will Germany be the worst-placed European nation in the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 21 $307 $0 +0%
Will the announcers say "Penalty Shootout" during the Germany vs Ivory Jun 21 $55 $0 +0%
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the Germany vs Ivory Coast FIFA Jun 21 $69 $0 +0%
Will the announcers say "Nutmeg / Meg" during the Germany vs Ivory Coa Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the Germany vs Ivory Coast FIFA Jun 21 $69 $0 +0%
Will the announcers say "Assist" during the Germany vs Ivory Coast FIF Jun 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians v Jun 20 $129 $0 +0%
Will the announcers say "History" during the Germany vs Ivory Coast FI Jun 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will the announcers say "What a Save" during the Germany vs Ivory Coas Jun 20 $19 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast say "Karl" during his next gaming YouTube video? Jun 20 $23 $0 +0%
Will the announcers say "Comeback / Come Back" during the Germany vs I Jun 20 $33 $0 +0%
Will the announcers say "Header" during the Germany vs Ivory Coast FIF Jun 20 $272 $0 +0%
Florian Wirtz: 2+ shots Jun 20 $20 $0 +0%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $500 +$351 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $1 55m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $47 55m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $15 56m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $32 57m
Gonzalo Plata: 4+ shots BUY Yes 100¢ $30 1h
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings SELL Chicago Sky 29¢ $27 1h
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings BUY Chicago Sky 99¢ $33 1h
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings BUY Chicago Sky 99¢ $42 1h
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings BUY Chicago Sky 95¢ $19 1h
Anthony Valencia: 4+ shots BUY No 100¢ $25 1h
Anthony Valencia: 3+ shots BUY No 100¢ $25 1h
Will MrBeast say "Wife" during his next gaming YouTube video? BUY No 100¢ $55 1h
Will MrBeast say "Wife" during his next gaming YouTube video? BUY No 100¢ $16 1h
Will MrBeast say "Roblox" during his next gaming YouTube video? BUY No 100¢ $398 1h
Will Trump publicly insult Mojtaba Khamenei by Friday? BUY No 100¢ $42 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 40¢ $173 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 81¢ $69 2h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 86¢ $2 3h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $61 3h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $49 3h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $17 3h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $6 3h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $168 3h
Will the announcers say "Penalty Shootout" during the Germany vs Ivory BUY No 100¢ $55 3h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians v BUY Yes 100¢ $129 3h
Will Germany be the worst-placed European nation in the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY No 100¢ $20 4h
Will Germany be the worst-placed European nation in the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY No 100¢ $287 4h
Will the announcers say "Nutmeg / Meg" during the Germany vs Ivory Coa BUY No 100¢ $50 4h
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the Germany vs Ivory Coast FIFA BUY No 100¢ $69 4h
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the Germany vs Ivory Coast FIFA BUY No 100¢ $69 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 59 history records