Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:46:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x452d…0395 world 67 markets active 0h ago coverage 552d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate55%36W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% +$3
other 24% +$14
sports 14% +$1
politics 8% −$18
tech 0% −$1
weather 0% −$6
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +0.5% -9.1% 36% 9% -8.7%
≤30d 28 +1.7% -8.0% 50% 11% -9.3%
≤90d 43 +1.1% -8.5% 49% 7% -9.4%
all 66 -1.1% -10.5% 55% 11% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 11% -9.7%
10% -19.1% 5% -18.4%
15% -26.9% 3% -26.3%
20% -34.1% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

552d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses36 / 30
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)66 / 67
History coverage552d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 82¢ 82¢ $42 $42 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $42 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $16 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $43 −$3 -6%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $39 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $49 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $42 +$1 +3%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $8 $0 -4%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $43 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $85 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $42 +$5 +13%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $185 +$1 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $3 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $30 −$1 -5%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $49 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $17 $0 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $17 −$1 -3%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $50 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $125 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 01 $17 $0 +3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 31 $84 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 30 $43 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $2 $0 +14%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 28 $5 $0 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $3 $0 -13%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $34 −$3 -8%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $47 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $44 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 20 $9 $0 +2%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $39 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 19 $83 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 15 $273 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $44 $0 +1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $45 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $257 +$1 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $5 $0 -1%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $234 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $234 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $10 $0 -2%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $3 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $233 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 24 $233 +$1 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $47 $0 +1%
Will Jalen Williams Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 24 $1 $0 +3%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $2 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $2 $0 +5%
Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May? Jun 03 $2 $0 +1%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +2%
Will Doc Rivers make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of Mar 19 $9 $0 -1%
UIC vs. Northern Iowa Feb 25 $9 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $42 14m
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 5h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 6h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $5 17h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $37 17h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $30 20h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $12 20h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 68¢ $16 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $16 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 60¢ $40 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 64¢ $43 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $38 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $39 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $49 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $49 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $35 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $8 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 68¢ $42 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $1 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $3 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $27 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $16 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $43 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $48 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $47 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 71¢ $31 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 71¢ $1 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 71¢ $15 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 63¢ $42 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.07 · official $42.56 (match) · 236 history records