Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:20:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x4526…2d4b weather 932 markets active 3d ago coverage 9d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 9d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (299 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$2,199 (+15%) realized +$2,294 · open −$95
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -51% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -62% what you keep after slip
Net edge-62%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate15%69W / 395L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day299.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$402now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 9d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 44% −$1,057
politics 27% −$461
other 17% −$301
economics 7% $0
sports 2% −$41
culture 2% −$12
world 1% −$15
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (299 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-55.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 338 -76.2% -78.5% 6% 4% -70.3%
≤30d 464 -50.8% -55.5% 15% 9% -66.8%
≤90d 464 -50.8% -55.5% 15% 9% -66.8%
all 464 -50.8% -55.5% 15% 9% -66.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover299.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -55.5% 9% -66.8%
10% ← realistic here -59.8% 8% -70.0%
15% -63.7% 6% -72.9%
20% -67.2% 6% -75.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -63% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -51% · $-wt -63% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -98% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$402
Realized+$2,294
Unrealized−$95
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses69 / 395
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions189
Markets (closed)464 / 932
History coverage9d ⚠
Avg bet$16
Trades / day299.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 189 History 464 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will annual inflation be 4.4% in June? No 97¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+3%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%? Yes 11¢ 98¢ $2 $20 +$17 (+786%)
Will Seoul have between 120-130mm of precipitation in June? No 96¢ 60¢ $30 $19 −$11 (-37%)
Will Sergio Moro win the Governor of Paraná election? Yes 6¢ 78¢ $1 $16 +$15 (+1313%)
Will Herman Mashaba be the next mayor of Johannesburg? No 72¢ 78¢ $14 $16 +$1 (+8%)
Will Green Party win the second-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election? Yes 3¢ 6¢ $8 $15 +$7 (+83%)
Will the Labour Party win 30-34 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election? Yes 14¢ 30¢ $6 $12 +$6 (+109%)
Will SC Recife win on 2026-06-18? No 90¢ 56¢ $18 $11 −$7 (-38%)
Will the close USD/JPY price at the end of 2026 be between 160 and 170? No 65¢ 79¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+22%)
Will the Labour Party win 35-39 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election? Yes 14¢ 48¢ $3 $10 +$7 (+232%)
Will Dr. Daniel Santos win the Governor of Pará election? No 57¢ 46¢ $11 $9 −$2 (-19%)
Will the Republican Party win the PA-17 House seat? No 71¢ 86¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+22%)
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-22 House seat? No 72¢ 40¢ $14 $8 −$7 (-45%)
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? Yes 8¢ 40¢ $2 $8 +$6 (+413%)
Will Trump announce Brett Giroir as the next FDA commissioner by December 31? No 84¢ 87¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+4%)
Will a player representing Belgium be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 98¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Will Te Pāti Māori win the second-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election? Yes 3¢ 16¢ $1 $7 +$6 (+444%)
Will voter turnout be between 50% and 60% in the first round of the 2026 Zambian presidential elections? Yes 20¢ 32¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+60%)
Will Seoul have less than 100mm of precipitation in June? Yes 12¢ 32¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+158%)
Will Capitão Wagner win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? No 99¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Labour Party win 50-54 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election? Yes 14¢ 15¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Will Hong Kong have 500mm or more of precipitation in June? Yes 12¢ 98¢ $1 $6 +$5 (+688%)
Will "Backrooms" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30? No 96¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will Stefany Shaheen be the Democratic nominee for NH-01? No 13¢ 27¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+108%)
Will Club Aurora win on 2026-06-12? No 87¢ 48¢ $9 $5 −$4 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 311 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on May 22? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Desmond Bane win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 4? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Babydoll - Dominic Fike" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 16°C on June 5? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C or higher on June 4? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 10? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on June 8? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on May 22? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C or higher on June 8? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 5? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on June 11? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on June 5? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jose Alvarado win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 6? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 5? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C or higher on June 7? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on Jun Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 9? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C or below on June Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 38°C or higher on June 6? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 7? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C or higher on June 9? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Landry Shamet win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on June 4? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ma Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 11? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 9? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on May 23? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 11? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on June 6? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C or below on June 8? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Josh Hart win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 88°F or higher on June 10? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 20°C on June 6? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 6? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C or below on June 6? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on May 22? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on May 22? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on May 23? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the official close price for the Nikkei 225 on the final trading SELL No 87¢ $12 2d
Will the official close price for the Nikkei 225 on the final trading SELL Yes 12¢ $0 3d
Will the official close price for the Nikkei 225 on the final trading SELL Yes 12¢ $1 3d
Will the official close price for the Nikkei 225 on the final trading SELL Yes 12¢ $2 4d
Will the official close price for the Nikkei 225 on the final trading SELL Yes 12¢ $2 4d
Will the official close price for the Nikkei 225 on the final trading SELL Yes 9¢ $1 4d
Will the official close price for the Nikkei 225 on the final trading SELL Yes 11¢ $2 4d
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? SELL Yes 63¢ $6 4d
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be between 1% and 1 SELL Yes 43¢ $9 5d
Will the official close price for the Nikkei 225 on the final trading SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will Guto Silva win the Governor of Paraná election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will Enio Verri win the Governor of Paraná election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will Requião Filho win the Governor of Paraná election? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 5d
Will 57 senators vote "Yea" for Todd Blanche as Attorney General? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will 56 senators vote "Yea" for Todd Blanche as Attorney General? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 5d
Will 55 senators vote "Yea" for Todd Blanche as Attorney General? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 5d
Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 11? BUY No 77¢ $3 5d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 11? BUY No 21¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 100-101°F on BUY No 99¢ $9 5d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju BUY No 79¢ $7 5d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju BUY No 47¢ $4 5d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on Ju BUY No 97¢ $9 5d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY No 96¢ $9 5d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju BUY No 77¢ $7 5d
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $5 5d
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $5 5d
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $5 5d
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $5 5d
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2026? BUY No 88¢ $4 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $402.18 · official $403.08 (match) · 3500 history records