Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:56:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x4526…7a45 other 334 markets active 2h ago coverage 360d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 359d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$69,025 (+9%) realized +$67,650 · open +$1,375
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate85%268W / 49L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$2,341per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Fees−$66est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$14,502now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 360d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% +$3,791
other 35% +$9,151
culture 8% +$2,320
crypto 7% +$402
politics 4% −$57
sports 3% +$677
economics 2% +$650
finance 1% +$876
tech 1% +$67
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +4.2% -5.7% 60% 40% -2.0%
≤30d 40 +1.0% -8.7% 62% 40% -4.6%
≤90d 93 -5.0% -14.0% 71% 25% -7.4%
all 317 +2.2% -7.5% 85% 20% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.5% 20% -7.6%
10% ← realistic here -16.4% 10% -16.4%
15% -24.5% 6% -24.5%
20% -31.9% 5% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$2,060) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$150 vs −$496 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.69 per $1 lost it wins $1.69
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

360d coverage
Net worth$14,502
Realized+$67,650
Unrealized+$1,375
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses268 / 49
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Est. fees paid−$66
Open positions17
Markets (closed)317 / 334
History coverage360d ⚠
Avg bet$2,341
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 317 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 93¢ 99¢ $1,852 $1,985 +$133 (+7%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 98¢ $1,923 $1,961 +$38 (+2%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 84¢ 95¢ $1,442 $1,619 +$177 (+12%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 85¢ 82¢ $1,619 $1,568 −$51 (-3%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 45¢ 50¢ $1,360 $1,485 +$125 (+9%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Yes 88¢ 100¢ $881 $1,000 +$118 (+13%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? No 63¢ 96¢ $630 $962 +$332 (+53%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 88¢ $928 $922 −$6 (-1%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 76¢ 88¢ $760 $875 +$115 (+15%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 20¢ 66¢ $200 $665 +$465 (+232%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? No 97¢ 100¢ $483 $499 +$15 (+3%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 76¢ 78¢ $380 $393 +$13 (+3%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No 88¢ 97¢ $215 $236 +$21 (+10%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 89¢ 95¢ $181 $193 +$12 (+7%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes 8¢ 5¢ $150 $97 −$53 (-35%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 67¢ 74¢ $40 $44 +$4 (+11%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $84 $0 −$84 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $3,254 +$746 +23%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $1,110 −$191 -17%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 19 $682 −$285 -42%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 19 $2,080 −$80 -4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $3,464 +$1,124 +32%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 18 $1,304 +$226 +17%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 18 $1,896 +$104 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $2,789 +$145 +5%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $27,584 −$514 -2%
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 18 $4,436 +$139 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $5,790 +$971 +17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $14,682 +$2,348 +16%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 17 $4,810 +$188 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $922 +$158 +17%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,260 −$1,260 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,020 +$1,980 +194%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 15 $545 −$275 -50%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $1,885 +$615 +33%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 15 $1,335 +$165 +12%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $2,226 −$131 -6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $1,225 −$175 -14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 14 $304 −$165 -54%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $230 −$230 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $970 +$30 +3%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1,417 +$1,583 +112%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $117 +$28 +24%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 +30%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 10 $1,057 +$17 +2%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 10 $308 +$132 +43%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 09 $186 +$414 +223%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $55,154 +$399 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $100 −$100 -100%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 02 $306 −$117 -38%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 27 $113 −$111 -98%
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? May 22 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 22 $400 +$84 +21%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 22 $656 +$144 +22%
Xi meets with Iranian officials by May 15? May 22 $941 +$32 +3%
Epstein suicide note released by May 8? May 22 $2,584 +$52 +2%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 10 $1,820 +$28 +2%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W May 09 $337 −$337 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 09 $920 +$80 +9%
Will Liam rank #1 among boy names on the SSA’s official list for 2025? May 08 $5,500 +$874 +16%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? May 01 $350 −$350 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 01 $1,012 −$1,012 -100%
Will Hezbollah disarm by April 30? May 01 $53 $0 +0%
Will Trump talk to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in April? May 01 $539 +$3 +1%
Critical Discord Incident by April 30? May 01 $633 +$2 +0%
North Korea missile test/launch by April 30, 2026? May 01 $727 +$2 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $21 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $48 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $94 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $27 2h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 8¢ $150 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 29¢ $290 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $1,254 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $1,220 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 39¢ $780 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 90¢ $1,800 9h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 51¢ $0 14h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $251 14h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $0 14h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $0 14h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $0 14h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $0 14h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $0 14h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $0 14h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $0 14h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $0 14h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $0 14h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $14 14h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $94 14h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $3 15h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $4 15h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $428 16h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $962 20h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $961 20h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 14¢ $18 26h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 14¢ $200 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14,502.14 · official $14,486.74 (match) · 3500 history records