Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:05:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
45 0x4525…7c16 sports 147 markets active 1h ago coverage 264d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$279 (-23%) realized −$218 · open −$61
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate73%103W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$480now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days+$30
14 days+$30
30 days−$210
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$30
sports 25% −$243
crypto 8% −$15
economics 1% +$1
politics 0% +$1
finance 0% −$2
tech 0% $0
world 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +12.2% +1.5% 100% 33% +2.6%
≤30d 5 -32.7% -39.1% 60% 20% -50.2%
≤90d 5 -32.7% -39.1% 60% 20% -50.2%
all 142 -4.8% -13.8% 73% 45% -40.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 45% -40.1%
10% -22.1% 30% -45.8%
15% -29.6% 13% -51.1%
20% -36.5% 9% -55.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 43% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -45% too few recent
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$8 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

264d coverage
Net worth$480
Realized−$218
Unrealized−$61
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses103 / 39
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions5
Markets (closed)142 / 147
History coverage264d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 142 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $200 $205 +$5 (+3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $150 $116 −$34 (-23%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $100 $92 −$8 (-8%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $90 $67 −$23 (-25%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 74¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $51 +$1 +2%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $92 +$7 +8%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $82 +$23 +27%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 29 $153 −$150 -98%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 22 $91 −$90 -98%
US government shutdown Saturday? Mar 05 $1 $0 +32%
LoL: Ultra Prime vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana Jan 28 $1 −$1 -100%
First to 5k: Gold or ETH? Jan 09 $1 −$1 -59%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Jan 09 $1 $0 +2%
Will DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS by Bad Bunny be the top Spotify album for 20 Jan 09 $1 $0 +11%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Jan 09 $2 $0 +8%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Jan 09 $1 $0 +33%
Will no CEO be announced in 2025? Jan 09 $1 $0 +35%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jan 09 $1 +$1 +52%
Will Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Jan 09 $2 $0 +14%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jan 09 $4 +$1 +18%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Dec 01 $1 $0 +5%
Will Solana reach $210 in November? Nov 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Solana reach $190 in November? Nov 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Solana reach $200 in November? Nov 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Wisconsin Badgers vs. Indiana Nov 16 $1 $0 +3%
Kansas State vs. Oklahoma State Nov 16 $1 $0 +10%
Thunder vs. Hornets Nov 16 $1 $0 +11%
UTSA Roadrunners vs. Charlotte 49ers Nov 16 $1 $0 +14%
Grizzlies vs. Cavaliers Nov 16 $1 $0 +24%
Will India win? Nov 15 $1 −$1 -100%
ATP World Tour Finals, Bjorn Borg Group: Jannik Sinner vs Felix Auger- Nov 12 $1 $0 +9%
Pelicans vs. Suns Nov 12 $1 $0 +33%
Lakers vs. Hornets Nov 12 $1 $0 +35%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 30? Nov 10 $2 $0 +7%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brisbane Roar FC win on 2025-11-09? Nov 10 $1 $0 +24%
Lions vs. Commanders Nov 10 $1 $0 +27%
Falcons vs. Colts Nov 10 $1 $0 +37%
Bills vs. Dolphins Nov 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down on November 3? Nov 05 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down on November 3? Nov 05 $1 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down on November 3? Nov 05 $1 $0 +5%
XRP Up or Down on November 3? Nov 05 $1 $0 +8%
Hellenic Championship: Reilly Opelka vs Vit Kopriva Nov 05 $1 $0 +18%
Timberwolves vs. Nets Nov 05 $1 $0 +27%
Open de Moselle: Matteo Berrettini vs Quentin Halys Nov 05 $1 $0 +30%
Solana Up or Down - November 3, 2AM ET Nov 05 $1 +$1 +96%
Open de Moselle: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Vitaliy Sachko Nov 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,700 on November 3? Nov 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Pelicans vs. Thunder Nov 03 $1 $0 +16%
Will Montedio Yamagata win on 2025-11-02? Nov 03 $1 $0 +19%
Chargers vs. Titans Nov 03 $1 $0 +22%
Will Lille OSC win on 2025-11-02? Nov 03 $1 $0 +33%
Saints vs. Rams Nov 03 $2 $0 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $52 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $99 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $105 1h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 20¢ $31 19d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 50¢ $30 25d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 25d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 25d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 25d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $92 25d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $92 25d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $82 25d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 25d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $154 25d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $154 25d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 26d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 26d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 26d
US government shutdown Saturday? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 140d
LoL: Ultra Prime vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana BUY Ultra Prime 30¢ $1 140d
First to 5k: Gold or ETH? SELL ETH 31¢ $0 159d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? SELL No 88¢ $1 198d
Will Solana reach $210 in November? BUY Yes $1 213d
Will Solana reach $190 in November? BUY Yes $1 213d
Will Solana reach $190 in November? BUY Yes $1 213d
Will Solana reach $200 in November? BUY Yes $1 213d
Will Solana reach $190 in November? BUY Yes $1 213d
Kansas State vs. Oklahoma State BUY Kansas State 91¢ $1 214d
Wisconsin Badgers vs. Indiana BUY Indiana 97¢ $1 214d
UTSA Roadrunners vs. Charlotte 49ers BUY UTSA Roadrunners 88¢ $1 214d
Thunder vs. Hornets BUY Thunder 90¢ $1 214d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $480.34 · official $480.35 (match) · 316 history records