Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:48:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
45 0x4523…581a sports 102 markets active 1h ago coverage 691d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,854 (+15%) realized +$2,798 · open +$56
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate55%47W / 38L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$187per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$4,226now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$184
7 days−$549
14 days−$101
30 days−$101
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% +$1,843
sports 40% +$709
politics 11% −$62
weather 1% +$443
crypto 1% −$152
world 1% +$62
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -46.6% -51.7% 27% 27% -29.1%
≤30d 24 -33.3% -39.6% 33% 33% -12.8%
≤90d 26 -24.4% -31.6% 38% 38% -5.5%
all 85 +6.1% -4.0% 55% 53% +7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.0% 53% +7.5%
10% -13.2% 51% -2.8%
15% -21.6% 48% -12.2%
20% -29.3% 44% -20.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$160 vs −$125 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

691d coverage
Net worth$4,226
Realized+$2,798
Unrealized+$56
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses47 / 38
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions17
Markets (closed)85 / 102
History coverage691d
Avg bet$187
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $1,600 $1,591 −$9 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $400 $456 +$56 (+14%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $300 $298 −$2 (-1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 56¢ 55¢ $300 $294 −$6 (-2%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $200 $214 +$14 (+7%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 84¢ $150 $179 +$29 (+19%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $160 $159 −$1 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $200 $158 −$42 (-21%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 24¢ $100 $144 +$44 (+44%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $150 $144 −$6 (-4%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $130 $108 −$22 (-17%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 41¢ 42¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-8%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $202 +$84 +42%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $142 −$142 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $202 +$97 +48%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$60 +60%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the Western Conference? Jun 14 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Trump pardon Changpeng Zhao in 2025? Jun 14 $200 −$200 -100%
Mariners vs. Blue Jays Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the Florida Panthers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the Toronto Maple Leafs win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 14 $60 −$60 -100%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jun 14 $300 −$300 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $163 +$281 +172%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$58 -57%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $162 +$170 +105%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $203 +$214 +105%
Canadiens vs. Lightning Jun 09 $10 +$6 +57%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the Eastern Conference? Jun 09 $260 +$443 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Apr 08 $20 +$11 +53%
Will United States win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Win Apr 08 $200 +$226 +113%
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series? Nov 02 $700 +$632 +90%
Blue Jays vs. Dodgers Oct 28 $150 +$113 +75%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 American League Championship? Oct 21 $300 +$226 +75%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Sep 08 $138 +$62 +45%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 US Open? Sep 08 $100 +$176 +176%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win Wimbledon 2025? Sep 08 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $100 +$12 +12%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $400 +$54 +13%
Thunder vs. Pacers Jun 23 $200 −$200 -100%
Oilers vs. Panthers Jun 19 $400 +$290 +72%
Will the Florida Panthers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jun 19 $200 +$1,001 +500%
Panthers vs. Oilers Jun 15 $320 +$246 +77%
Oilers vs. Panthers Jun 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Thunder vs. Pacers Jun 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Blue Jays vs. Cardinals Jun 12 $20 +$25 +127%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 French Open? Jun 08 $100 −$86 -86%
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2025 French Open? Jun 08 $100 −$100 -100%
Panthers vs. Oilers Jun 07 $200 +$200 +100%
Panthers vs. Oilers Jun 05 $200 −$200 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Panthers May 30 $100 −$100 -100%
Stars vs. Oilers May 30 $100 +$64 +64%
Will the Florida Panthers be Eastern Conference champions? May 30 $100 +$82 +82%
Panthers vs. Hurricanes May 30 $100 +$85 +85%
Will the Dallas Stars win the Western Conference? May 30 $100 +$91 +91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $51 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $202 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $303 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $203 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $161 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $151 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $502 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $602 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $502 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $206 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 26¢ $43 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $30 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 3d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $71 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $50 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $61 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $82 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $82 5d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $154 6d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $41 7d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 7d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $103 7d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $133 7d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $205 8d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $308 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,225.57 · official $4,225.58 (match) · 248 history records