Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:41:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x4522…4c82 sports 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$170 · open −$170
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day23.0pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$175
other 9% $0
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-30.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -23.2% -30.5% 50% 0% -25.2%
≤30d 2 -23.2% -30.5% 50% 0% -25.2%
≤90d 2 -23.2% -30.5% 50% 0% -25.2%
all 2 -23.2% -30.5% 50% 0% -25.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.5% 0% -25.2%
10% ← realistic here -37.2% 0% -32.4%
15% -43.2% 0% -38.9%
20% -48.8% 0% -44.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$5 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized+$170
Unrealized−$170
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions4
Markets (closed)2 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day23.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Jimmy Lai released by June 30? No 100¢ 99¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 93¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Vitality 63¢ 0¢ $150 $0 −$150 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Team Falcons 33¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$5 -47%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $17 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 63¢ $131 1h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 65¢ $20 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 57¢ $27 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Vitality 82¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 33¢ $20 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 42¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 43¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Vitality 79¢ $14 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 56¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 46¢ $54 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 53¢ $14 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 51¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 51¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 15¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 37¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 20¢ $20 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 49¢ $5 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 99¢ $17 2h
Jimmy Lai released by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $10 2h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 47¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.73 · official $14.73 (match) · 24 history records