Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:43:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x4522…dfeb crypto 30 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$5 (+2%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate97%29W / 1L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day43.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -1.4% -10.8% 97% 0% -7.8%
≤30d 30 -1.4% -10.8% 97% 0% -7.8%
≤90d 30 -1.4% -10.8% 97% 0% -7.8%
all 30 -1.4% -10.8% 97% 0% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.8% 0% -7.8%
10% ← realistic here -19.4% 0% -16.6%
15% -27.1% 0% -24.7%
20% -34.3% 0% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×3.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×92.51 per $1 lost it wins $92.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses29 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage1d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day43.8
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 17m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 8h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 9h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 9h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 12h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 13h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 14h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 16h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 19h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 73 history records