Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T08:49:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

45
0x4521…2694
weather · 153 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$20 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$20 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$7
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses150 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)152 / 153
History coverage180d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 1 History 152 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-0%)
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? Yes 99¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 11? Jun 12 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on June 8? Jun 08 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 7? Jun 07 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 6? Jun 06 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 5? Jun 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 4? Jun 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C or higher on June 3? Jun 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C or higher on June 2? Jun 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 72°F or higher on May 3 Jun 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ma May 31 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 30? May 30 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 29? May 30 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 90°F or higher on May 28? May 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on May 28? May 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on May 27? May 28 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 27? May 27 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on May 26? May 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 63°F or below on May 25? May 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on May 25? May 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on May 24? May 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 46°C on May 24? May 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on May 23? May 23 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on May 22? May 22 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C or higher on May 14? May 15 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C or higher on May 13? May 13 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 12? May 12 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on May 11? May 11 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 10? May 10 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 38°C on May 9? May 10 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C or higher on May 8? May 08 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on May 7? May 07 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 7? May 07 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on May 6? May 06 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on May 5? May 05 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on May 4? May 05 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on May 4? May 05 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on May 3? May 04 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on May 2? May 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 01 $22 +$1 +3%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Apr 11 $22 $0 +0%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? Apr 08 $22 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 5? Apr 05 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on April 3? Apr 03 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on April 3? Apr 03 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on April 2? Apr 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on Apri Apr 02 $22 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 90% +$2
world 5% +$1
other 3% $0
politics 1% −$23
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 30h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $7 4d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $7 5d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $7 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 6? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 7d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 5? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 8d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $7 9d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C or higher on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $7 9d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C or higher on June 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 11d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 72°F or higher on May 3 BUY No 100¢ $7 12d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ma BUY Yes 100¢ $7 13d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $7 13d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $7 14d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 90°F or higher on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $7 15d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on May 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 15d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on May 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 16d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 17d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on May 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 17d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 63°F or below on May 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 18d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $7 18d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on May 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 19d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 46°C on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $7 19d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on May 23? BUY No 100¢ $7 21d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on May 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 21d
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 99¢ $23 29d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C or higher on May 14? BUY No 100¢ $23 29d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C or higher on May 13? BUY No 100¢ $23 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 28 -3.5% -12.7% 96% 0% -18.5%
≤90d 83 -1.0% -10.5% 99% 0% -10.8%
all 152 -0.5% -10.0% 99% 0% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -10.3%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.9%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.7%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.24 · official $7.24 (match) · 306 history records