Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:12:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x4521…8c4e crypto 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (193 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate25%7W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day193.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$94
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (193 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-42.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -36.2% -42.3% 25% 21% -27.1%
≤30d 28 -36.2% -42.3% 25% 21% -27.1%
≤90d 28 -36.2% -42.3% 25% 21% -27.1%
all 28 -36.2% -42.3% 25% 21% -27.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover193.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -42.3% 21% -27.1%
10% ← realistic here -47.8% 21% -34.1%
15% -52.9% 14% -40.4%
20% -57.5% 14% -46.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 77% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late -43% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$11 · ×1.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses7 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage1d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day193.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions (18 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $25 −$5 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$3 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$6 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $47 −$35 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$11 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $41 +$11 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $41 −$7 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$5 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $41 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $46 −$10 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $32 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $41 −$25 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$15 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$43 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $17 +$63 +376%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $70 −$22 -31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 4¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $11 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $7 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 56m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 200 history records