Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:04:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
45 0x451e…11c5 sports 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 19d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$105 (+7%) realized +$157 · open −$52
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate88%7W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$140per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$218now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days−$99
14 days−$41
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 43% −$136
other 37% +$41
politics 19% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -15.0% -23.1% 80% 20% -20.4%
≤30d 8 -4.3% -13.4% 88% 25% -12.7%
≤90d 8 -4.3% -13.4% 88% 25% -12.7%
all 8 -4.3% -13.4% 88% 25% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 25% -12.7%
10% -21.7% 12% -21.0%
15% -29.2% 0% -28.7%
20% -36.2% 0% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$150 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$218
Realized+$157
Unrealized−$52
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses7 / 1
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)8 / 11
History coverage19d
Avg bet$140
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Over 97¢ 96¢ $120 $119 −$1 (-1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 87¢ 84¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 33¢ 1¢ $50 $2 −$48 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $251 +$30 +12%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $96 +$2 +2%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $227 +$14 +6%
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) Jun 14 $100 +$5 +5%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 13 $150 −$150 -100%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 0.5 Jun 08 $100 +$3 +3%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 0.5 Jun 08 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 08 $153 +$50 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 97¢ $120 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 87¢ $100 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $281 18h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $98 18h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 98¢ $96 19h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $251 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $227 6d
Spread: Australia (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 95¢ $150 6d
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) BUY Scotland 95¢ $100 6d
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $103 11d
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 97¢ $100 12d
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $105 12d
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $100 12d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 33¢ $51 12d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 77¢ $202 12d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 57¢ $153 12d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 70¢ $279 12d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 23¢ $95 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $218.26 · official $218.26 (match) · 20 history records