Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T23:02:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
45 0x451e…53e8 other 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$21 · open +$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate61%22W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$111now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days−$8
14 days−$10
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% +$15
crypto 5% −$7
sports 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -3.9% -13.1% 67% 50% -12.9%
≤30d 36 +1.0% -8.6% 61% 42% -11.4%
≤90d 36 +1.0% -8.6% 61% 42% -11.4%
all 36 +1.0% -8.6% 61% 42% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 42% -11.4%
10% -17.4% 39% -19.8%
15% -25.3% 31% -27.6%
20% -32.7% 22% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$111
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$19
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses22 / 14
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage21d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 83¢ 100¢ $92 $111 +$19 (+20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $5 +$2 +31%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $76 +$15 +20%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $79 +$7 +9%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $10 +$12 +116%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 +$3 +56%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $3 +$5 +210%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +39%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +46%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +225%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +162%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -25%
Will India win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$1 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +2%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $5 $0 +7%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $4 −$4 -91%
Will Cyprus win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $16 +$4 +27%
Will England win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $10 $0 +5%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $20 +$2 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 83¢ $93 1h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 95¢ $7 18h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 71¢ $5 18h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $91 18h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 82¢ $76 25h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $79 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 72¢ $5 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 7d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 99¢ $8 9d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 9d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 9d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 12¢ $8 10d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 99¢ $7 10d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 10d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $4 10d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 11d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 11d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 12d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 12d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 14d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 15d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $110.79 · official $110.79 (match) · 81 history records