Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:58:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x451c…1ae3 other 257 markets active 1h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$78 (-0%) realized −$78 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%11W / 245L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$218per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$14
14 days−$28
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$38
sports 25% −$22
politics 9% −$8
economics 6% −$5
culture 6% −$7
crypto 5% −$6
world 4% −$3
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 65 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 174 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 256 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 60% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$78
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses11 / 245
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)256 / 257
History coverage136d
Avg bet$218
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 256 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 99¢ 99¢ $59 $59 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $416 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $248 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $369 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $379 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $410 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $213 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $271 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $432 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $61 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $828 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $217 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $317 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $283 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $216 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $62 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $164 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $272 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 12 $318 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $325 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $425 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $302 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $234 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $146 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $295 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $199 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $468 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $225 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $561 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $911 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $231 −$1 -1%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $562 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $423 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $85 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $133 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $349 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $361 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $360 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $421 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 05 $612 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $606 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $533 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $338 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $414 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $534 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $219 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $216 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $217 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 02 $507 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $364 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $339 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $59 1h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $59 8h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $59 10h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $59 11h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $60 13h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $60 15h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $60 17h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $60 18h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $60 19h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $60 21h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $60 23h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $40 23h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $20 24h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $20 26h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $10 26h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $10 26h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $60 28h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $60 35h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $60 36h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $60 39h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $60 40h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $60 42h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $61 43h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $61 2d
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $61 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $61 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $61 2d
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $61 2d
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $61 2d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $61 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.24 · official $59.24 (match) · 1385 history records