trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 9 | +22.4% | +10.8% | 67% | 56% | +10.0% |
| ≤30d | 9 | +22.4% | +10.8% | 67% | 56% | +10.0% |
| ≤90d | 9 | +22.4% | +10.8% | 67% | 56% | +10.0% |
| all | 62 | -11.3% | -19.7% | 48% | 42% | -20.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -19.7% | 42% | -20.6% |
| 10% | -27.4% | 37% | -28.2% |
| 15% | -34.4% | 35% | -35.1% |
| 20% | -40.9% | 32% | -41.5% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | No | 88¢ | 94¢ | $1,759 | $1,874 | +$115 (+7%) |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | Yes | 65¢ | 64¢ | $200 | $198 | −$2 (-1%) |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? | Yes | 58¢ | 57¢ | $200 | $198 | −$2 (-1%) |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? | Yes | 63¢ | 62¢ | $150 | $149 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will United States win on 2026-06-19? | Jun 19 | $304 | +$188 | +62% |
| Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? | Jun 18 | $127 | +$73 | +57% |
| Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? | Jun 18 | $14 | +$36 | +262% |
| Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? | Jun 18 | $269 | −$265 | -99% |
| Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? | Jun 18 | $7 | −$7 | -98% |
| Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? | Jun 18 | $74 | −$72 | -98% |
| Will England win on 2026-06-17? | Jun 17 | $101 | +$71 | +70% |
| Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? | Jun 17 | $103 | $0 | +0% |
| Will France win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 16 | $667 | +$333 | +50% |
| Nuggets vs. Thunder | Mar 10 | $85 | −$85 | -100% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | Feb 24 | $790 | −$790 | -100% |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | Feb 24 | $1,376 | +$104 | +8% |
| Grizzlies vs. Wizards | Dec 28 | $210 | −$210 | -100% |
| Warriors vs. Raptors | Dec 28 | $183 | −$183 | -100% |
| Hornets vs. Magic | Dec 26 | $278 | −$278 | -100% |
| Timberwolves vs. Nuggets | Dec 26 | $154 | −$154 | -100% |
| Raptors vs. Nets | Dec 24 | $120 | −$120 | -100% |
| Bulls vs. Hawks | Dec 24 | $62 | −$62 | -100% |
| Jazz vs. Nuggets | Dec 24 | $26 | −$26 | -100% |
| Pelicans vs. Cavaliers | Dec 24 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| Bucks vs. Pacers | Dec 24 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| Knicks vs. Timberwolves | Dec 24 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| Grizzlies vs. Jazz | Dec 24 | $50 | +$38 | +75% |
| Magic vs. Trail Blazers | Dec 24 | $50 | +$42 | +85% |
| Celtics vs. Raptors | Dec 21 | $108 | +$92 | +85% |
| Mavericks vs. 76ers | Dec 21 | $114 | +$86 | +75% |
| Pacers vs. Pelicans | Dec 21 | $90 | −$90 | -100% |
| Rockets vs. Nuggets | Dec 21 | $150 | −$150 | -100% |
| Thunder vs. Timberwolves | Dec 20 | $370 | −$370 | -100% |
| Kings vs. Trail Blazers | Dec 19 | $80 | −$80 | -100% |
| Knicks vs. Pacers | Dec 19 | $536 | −$126 | -24% |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | Dec 18 | $405 | −$41 | -10% |
| Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? | Dec 16 | $1,786 | +$220 | +12% |
| Bucks vs. Nets | Dec 16 | $112 | −$112 | -100% |
| Hornets vs. Cavaliers | Dec 16 | $164 | −$164 | -100% |
| Wizards vs. Pacers | Dec 16 | $25 | +$75 | +300% |
| UFC Fight Night: Asplund vs. Sharaf (Heavyweight, Main Card) | Dec 14 | $100 | +$45 | +45% |
| Clippers vs. Rockets | Dec 12 | $12 | −$12 | -100% |
| Trail Blazers vs. Pelicans | Dec 12 | $158 | −$158 | -100% |
| Celtics vs. Bucks | Dec 12 | $616 | +$19 | +3% |
| Nuggets vs. Kings | Dec 12 | $243 | −$3 | -1% |
| Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? | Dec 11 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Lakers vs. 76ers | Dec 11 | $100 | −$32 | -32% |
| Pacers vs. Bulls | Dec 11 | $315 | −$315 | -100% |
| MSFT shareholders vote for Bitcoin investment? | Dec 11 | $1,866 | −$1,866 | -100% |
| Spurs vs. Lakers | Dec 11 | $408 | −$324 | -79% |
| Heat vs. Magic | Dec 10 | $454 | +$446 | +98% |
| Knicks vs. Raptors | Dec 10 | $315 | +$184 | +59% |
| Spurs vs. Pelicans | Dec 09 | $210 | +$39 | +19% |
| Suns vs. Timberwolves | Dec 09 | $100 | +$160 | +160% |