Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T00:48:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x451a…3b01 weather 755 markets active 1h ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$795 (+4%) realized +$792 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate77%576W / 171L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day47.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$965now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$80
7 days−$8
14 days+$351
30 days+$884
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$700
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 +1.1% -8.6% 82% 34% -9.7%
≤30d 226 +3.3% -6.5% 86% 32% -3.8%
≤90d 747 -6.7% -15.6% 77% 17% -6.5%
all 747 -6.7% -15.6% 77% 17% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.6% 17% -6.5%
10% ← realistic here -23.7% 6% -15.5%
15% -31.1% 4% -23.6%
20% -37.8% 3% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$13 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$965
Realized+$792
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses576 / 171
Open positions8
Markets (closed)747 / 755
History coverage51d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day47.6
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 747 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? No 74¢ 77¢ $200 $207 +$7 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 17? No 78¢ 78¢ $200 $200 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 17? No 79¢ 76¢ $200 $194 −$6 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 17? No 64¢ 66¢ $155 $158 +$3 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? No 74¢ 72¢ $150 $147 −$3 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? No 71¢ 68¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 17? No 78¢ 96¢ $17 $21 +$4 (+22%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 17? No 68¢ 62¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 126 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $51 +$23 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $38 +$16 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 +$13 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $37 +$17 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $81 +$74 +91%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $51 +$30 +60%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $51 +$29 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 16? Jun 16 $51 +$16 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 +$4 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 16? Jun 16 $16 +$5 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 +$3 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $61 +$20 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $42 −$41 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 16? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +81%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +75%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 +$3 +116%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 15 $39 −$37 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $304 +$75 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $124 +$9 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $257 +$73 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $64 +$6 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $97 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $201 +$16 +8%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $15 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 13? Jun 13 $8 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 13? Jun 13 $39 +$3 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $31 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $120 +$9 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $102 +$10 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $42 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 80°F or higher on June Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $25 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $151 +$11 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $149 +$11 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $151 +$15 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 13? Jun 12 $302 −$300 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 13? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $151 +$12 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $155 +$18 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 76¢ $64 55m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 74¢ $17 58m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 17? BUY No 79¢ $18 59m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 74¢ $121 59m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 17? BUY No 79¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 17? BUY No 79¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 17? BUY No 79¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 17? BUY No 79¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 73¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 74¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 17? BUY No 79¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 17? BUY No 79¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 17? BUY No 79¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 17? BUY No 79¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 17? BUY No 79¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 17? BUY No 79¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 17? BUY No 79¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 17? BUY No 79¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 17? BUY No 79¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 17? BUY No 79¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? BUY No 70¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 17? BUY No 79¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? BUY No 70¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 17? BUY No 79¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 17? BUY No 79¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? BUY No 70¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 17? BUY No 79¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 17? BUY No 79¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? BUY No 70¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 17? BUY No 79¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $964.66 · official $966.33 (match) · 2879 history records